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Geopolitics·Trump

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

icon for How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
Geopolitics·Trump

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

1-100 36.9%

101-1k 32.5%

1k-2.5k 4.9%

2.5k-5k 4.1%

Polymarket

$172,934 Vol.

1-100 36.9%

101-1k 32.5%

1k-2.5k 4.9%

2.5k-5k 4.1%

Polymarket

$172,934 Vol.

1-100

$14,073 Vol.

37%

101-1k

$7,503 Vol.

32%

1k-2.5k

$8,827 Vol.

5%

2.5k-5k

$5,910 Vol.

4%

5k-10k

$8,661 Vol.

4%

10k-25k

$57,906 Vol.

3%

25k-100k

$6,589 Vol.

4%

>100k

$19,037 Vol.

4%

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's April 23 congressional testimony, revealing just one Gold Card visa fully approved since the program's December 2025 launch despite hundreds in the USCIS queue, has anchored trader consensus on minimal 2026 sales, with 1-100 (37%) edging 101-1k (31%). High barriers—including a $1 million contribution post-vetting, processing delays, and competition from EB-5 investments—fuel skepticism, keeping low-volume outcomes tightly contested amid initial hype of billions in preliminary "sales" that failed to materialize as finalized residency grants. Acceleration via streamlined executive actions, backlog clearances, or promotional outreach to high-net-worth foreigners could boost higher bins, while further oversight hearings risk stagnation.

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.

This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$172,934
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's April 23 congressional testimony, revealing just one Gold Card visa fully approved since the program's December 2025 launch despite hundreds in the USCIS queue, has anchored trader consensus on minimal 2026 sales, with 1-100 (37%) edging 101-1k (31%). High barriers—including a $1 million contribution post-vetting, processing delays, and competition from EB-5 investments—fuel skepticism, keeping low-volume outcomes tightly contested amid initial hype of billions in preliminary "sales" that failed to materialize as finalized residency grants. Acceleration via streamlined executive actions, backlog clearances, or promotional outreach to high-net-worth foreigners could boost higher bins, while further oversight hearings risk stagnation.

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.

This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$172,934
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1-100" at 37%, followed by "101-1k" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?" has generated $172.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?" is "1-100" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "101-1k" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.