The @khamenei_ir account, which continues to issue statements attributed to the late Supreme Leader, maintains a low posting cadence focused on archival quotes and occasional geopolitical commentary rather than daily updates. Recent activity shows isolated posts in early and mid-June 2026, consistent with its pattern of 1–4 outputs per week outside major crises or anniversaries. No scheduled events, diplomatic summits, or escalations in Iran-related tensions fall within the June 16–23 window that would prompt additional releases. Traders price the <5 outcome at 87.5% because the account’s managed communications and historical volume provide a clear baseline, with higher bins reflecting only low-probability scenarios such as an unforeseen development requiring rapid official messaging.