Canada's first annual population decline on record occurred in 2025, with a net drop of roughly 102,000 residents driven by federal caps on temporary residents that produced large net outflows of non-permanent residents in the second half of the year. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, released in late 2025, set permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually and temporary resident arrivals at 385,000 for 2026 while extending the goal of reducing the temporary resident share below 5 percent of total population by the end of 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate population growth will remain near flat in 2026 as the sharpest outflows from prior policy tightening ease. Traders assign 57 percent probability to "No" on a larger 2026 decline, reflecting expectations that net migration reductions will moderate rather than intensify relative to the 2025 baseline amid stabilized admission targets.