Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—as targets of Israeli military action in April 2026, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian sites in early April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel campaign launched in late February, alongside near-daily Israeli airstrikes, drone strikes, and artillery shelling against Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, Beirut suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley through late April. Ceasefires brokered with Iran in early April and Lebanon around April 17—despite reported violations—have curbed escalation, with no confirmed strikes on additional nations like Yemen or Syria by April 30. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight could shift resolution, though de-escalation signals and diplomatic efforts make this unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
2 97.5%
3 1.8%
≥4 <1%
$160,747 Vol.
$160,747 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2
98%
3
2%
≥4
<1%
2 97.5%
3 1.8%
≥4 <1%
$160,747 Vol.
$160,747 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2
$51,804 Vol.
98%
3
$42,509 Vol.
2%
≥4
$59,227 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—as targets of Israeli military action in April 2026, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian sites in early April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel campaign launched in late February, alongside near-daily Israeli airstrikes, drone strikes, and artillery shelling against Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, Beirut suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley through late April. Ceasefires brokered with Iran in early April and Lebanon around April 17—despite reported violations—have curbed escalation, with no confirmed strikes on additional nations like Yemen or Syria by April 30. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight could shift resolution, though de-escalation signals and diplomatic efforts make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$160,747End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—as targets of Israeli military action in April 2026, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian sites in early April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel campaign launched in late February, alongside near-daily Israeli airstrikes, drone strikes, and artillery shelling against Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, Beirut suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley through late April. Ceasefires brokered with Iran in early April and Lebanon around April 17—despite reported violations—have curbed escalation, with no confirmed strikes on additional nations like Yemen or Syria by April 30. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight could shift resolution, though de-escalation signals and diplomatic efforts make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$160,747End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—as targets of Israeli military action in April 2026, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian sites in early April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel campaign launched in late February, alongside near-daily Israeli airstrikes, drone strikes, and artillery shelling against Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, Beirut suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley through late April. Ceasefires brokered with Iran in early April and Lebanon around April 17—despite reported violations—have curbed escalation, with no confirmed strikes on additional nations like Yemen or Syria by April 30. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight could shift resolution, though de-escalation signals and diplomatic efforts make this unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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