Global seismic monitoring from the USGS shows magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at a baseline rate of roughly 10–15 events per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along subduction zones and major faults in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Activity during June 8–14, 2026, including a magnitude 7.8 mainshock off Mindanao, Philippines, on June 8 and multiple 5.0+ events on June 10, aligns with this average and supports the market-implied 99% probability for more than nine total events. Trader consensus reflects this established pattern rather than any single outlier. The primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome involve post-event magnitude downgrades near the 5.5 threshold or a rare global seismic lull, both of which remain infrequent given ongoing plate boundary dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
>9 99.0%
9 <1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$39,034 Vol.
$39,034 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
1%
>9
99%
>9 99.0%
9 <1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$39,034 Vol.
$39,034 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
≤3
$3,377 Vol.
<1%
4
$2,340 Vol.
<1%
5
$3,737 Vol.
<1%
6
$4,037 Vol.
<1%
7
$4,080 Vol.
<1%
8
$4,746 Vol.
<1%
9
$4,031 Vol.
1%
>9
$12,686 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring from the USGS shows magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at a baseline rate of roughly 10–15 events per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along subduction zones and major faults in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Activity during June 8–14, 2026, including a magnitude 7.8 mainshock off Mindanao, Philippines, on June 8 and multiple 5.0+ events on June 10, aligns with this average and supports the market-implied 99% probability for more than nine total events. Trader consensus reflects this established pattern rather than any single outlier. The primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome involve post-event magnitude downgrades near the 5.5 threshold or a rare global seismic lull, both of which remain infrequent given ongoing plate boundary dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$39,034End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring from the USGS shows magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at a baseline rate of roughly 10–15 events per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along subduction zones and major faults in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Activity during June 8–14, 2026, including a magnitude 7.8 mainshock off Mindanao, Philippines, on June 8 and multiple 5.0+ events on June 10, aligns with this average and supports the market-implied 99% probability for more than nine total events. Trader consensus reflects this established pattern rather than any single outlier. The primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome involve post-event magnitude downgrades near the 5.5 threshold or a rare global seismic lull, both of which remain infrequent given ongoing plate boundary dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$39,034End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring from the USGS shows magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at a baseline rate of roughly 10–15 events per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along subduction zones and major faults in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Activity during June 8–14, 2026, including a magnitude 7.8 mainshock off Mindanao, Philippines, on June 8 and multiple 5.0+ events on June 10, aligns with this average and supports the market-implied 99% probability for more than nine total events. Trader consensus reflects this established pattern rather than any single outlier. The primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome involve post-event magnitude downgrades near the 5.5 threshold or a rare global seismic lull, both of which remain infrequent given ongoing plate boundary dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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