Global seismicity rates make more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes in any given week the near-certain outcome, with USGS records showing roughly 10–20 such events weekly on average from ongoing tectonic activity along major plate boundaries. As of June 14, early-week detections already approach or exceed typical baselines, reinforcing trader consensus at 99% implied probability for the >9 bucket. Model consensus from global networks indicates no unusual quiet period, though resolution depends on final USGS catalog verification by magnitude threshold and date window. An unexpected global lull below historical norms would be required to shift odds materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
>9 99.0%
9 <1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$39,034 Vol.
$39,034 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
1%
>9
99%
>9 99.0%
9 <1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$39,034 Vol.
$39,034 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
1%
>9
99%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity rates make more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes in any given week the near-certain outcome, with USGS records showing roughly 10–20 such events weekly on average from ongoing tectonic activity along major plate boundaries. As of June 14, early-week detections already approach or exceed typical baselines, reinforcing trader consensus at 99% implied probability for the >9 bucket. Model consensus from global networks indicates no unusual quiet period, though resolution depends on final USGS catalog verification by magnitude threshold and date window. An unexpected global lull below historical norms would be required to shift odds materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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