**Forecast models show a narrow range for Warsaw's June 15 maximum temperature, with official guidance from sources like the UK Met Office and BBC Weather pointing to a high near 17°C under thundery showers and moderate westerly winds.** This places the market-implied probabilities for 17°C and 18°C in close contention because small differences in cloud cover timing, shower intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1°C. Cooler-than-average June conditions, driven by a persistent trough and Atlantic flow, have kept daytime maxima below the long-term 21–22°C climatology. Numerical weather prediction ensembles exhibit limited spread on this short-range event, with resolution depending on precise observations from Polish meteorological stations rather than model adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 15?
18°C 47%
17°C 38%
16°C 5.5%
19°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
6%
17°C
38%
18°C
47%
19°C
5%
20°C or higher
2%
18°C 47%
17°C 38%
16°C 5.5%
19°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
10°C or below
$605 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$249 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$660 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$985 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,658 Vol.
6%
17°C
$853 Vol.
38%
18°C
$1,719 Vol.
47%
19°C
$1,033 Vol.
5%
20°C or higher
$1,406 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models show a narrow range for Warsaw's June 15 maximum temperature, with official guidance from sources like the UK Met Office and BBC Weather pointing to a high near 17°C under thundery showers and moderate westerly winds.** This places the market-implied probabilities for 17°C and 18°C in close contention because small differences in cloud cover timing, shower intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1°C. Cooler-than-average June conditions, driven by a persistent trough and Atlantic flow, have kept daytime maxima below the long-term 21–22°C climatology. Numerical weather prediction ensembles exhibit limited spread on this short-range event, with resolution depending on precise observations from Polish meteorological stations rather than model adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$9,652End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models show a narrow range for Warsaw's June 15 maximum temperature, with official guidance from sources like the UK Met Office and BBC Weather pointing to a high near 17°C under thundery showers and moderate westerly winds.** This places the market-implied probabilities for 17°C and 18°C in close contention because small differences in cloud cover timing, shower intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1°C. Cooler-than-average June conditions, driven by a persistent trough and Atlantic flow, have kept daytime maxima below the long-term 21–22°C climatology. Numerical weather prediction ensembles exhibit limited spread on this short-range event, with resolution depending on precise observations from Polish meteorological stations rather than model adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,652End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models show a narrow range for Warsaw's June 15 maximum temperature, with official guidance from sources like the UK Met Office and BBC Weather pointing to a high near 17°C under thundery showers and moderate westerly winds.** This places the market-implied probabilities for 17°C and 18°C in close contention because small differences in cloud cover timing, shower intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1°C. Cooler-than-average June conditions, driven by a persistent trough and Atlantic flow, have kept daytime maxima below the long-term 21–22°C climatology. Numerical weather prediction ensembles exhibit limited spread on this short-range event, with resolution depending on precise observations from Polish meteorological stations rather than model adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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