**Trader consensus centers on a 25–26°C high for Mexico City on June 15, 2026, reflecting typical early-rainy-season conditions at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Long-term climatology shows June daytime maxima averaging 24–26°C, with rapid afternoon convection often triggered by Gulf and Pacific moisture influx. This caps temperatures through increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and evaporative cooling—factors that explain why probabilities drop sharply above 27°C and below 24°C. Recent model guidance and extended forecasts align with this range, pointing to highs near 24–25°C amid partly cloudy skies and light rain chances that limit solar heating. The city’s urban heat island provides a modest boost, yet the altitude and seasonal moisture keep extremes rare. No anomalous high-pressure ridge or clear-sky setup appears in current data that would support 28°C or higher. Updated National Meteorological Service and international model runs over the next several hours will refine these probabilities as the diurnal heating cycle unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on June 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on June 15?
26°C 42%
25°C 28%
27°C 16%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
8%
25°C
28%
26°C
42%
27°C
16%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 42%
25°C 28%
27°C 16%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
20°C or below
$185 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$391 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$515 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,063 Vol.
3%
24°C
$553 Vol.
8%
25°C
$556 Vol.
28%
26°C
$356 Vol.
42%
27°C
$483 Vol.
16%
28°C
$286 Vol.
1%
29°C
$307 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$532 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 25–26°C high for Mexico City on June 15, 2026, reflecting typical early-rainy-season conditions at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Long-term climatology shows June daytime maxima averaging 24–26°C, with rapid afternoon convection often triggered by Gulf and Pacific moisture influx. This caps temperatures through increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and evaporative cooling—factors that explain why probabilities drop sharply above 27°C and below 24°C.
Recent model guidance and extended forecasts align with this range, pointing to highs near 24–25°C amid partly cloudy skies and light rain chances that limit solar heating. The city’s urban heat island provides a modest boost, yet the altitude and seasonal moisture keep extremes rare. No anomalous high-pressure ridge or clear-sky setup appears in current data that would support 28°C or higher. Updated National Meteorological Service and international model runs over the next several hours will refine these probabilities as the diurnal heating cycle unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$5,228End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 25–26°C high for Mexico City on June 15, 2026, reflecting typical early-rainy-season conditions at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Long-term climatology shows June daytime maxima averaging 24–26°C, with rapid afternoon convection often triggered by Gulf and Pacific moisture influx. This caps temperatures through increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and evaporative cooling—factors that explain why probabilities drop sharply above 27°C and below 24°C.
Recent model guidance and extended forecasts align with this range, pointing to highs near 24–25°C amid partly cloudy skies and light rain chances that limit solar heating. The city’s urban heat island provides a modest boost, yet the altitude and seasonal moisture keep extremes rare. No anomalous high-pressure ridge or clear-sky setup appears in current data that would support 28°C or higher. Updated National Meteorological Service and international model runs over the next several hours will refine these probabilities as the diurnal heating cycle unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,228End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a 25–26°C high for Mexico City on June 15, 2026, reflecting typical early-rainy-season conditions at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Long-term climatology shows June daytime maxima averaging 24–26°C, with rapid afternoon convection often triggered by Gulf and Pacific moisture influx. This caps temperatures through increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and evaporative cooling—factors that explain why probabilities drop sharply above 27°C and below 24°C. Recent model guidance and extended forecasts align with this range, pointing to highs near 24–25°C amid partly cloudy skies and light rain chances that limit solar heating. The city’s urban heat island provides a modest boost, yet the altitude and seasonal moisture keep extremes rare. No anomalous high-pressure ridge or clear-sky setup appears in current data that would support 28°C or higher. Updated National Meteorological Service and international model runs over the next several hours will refine these probabilities as the diurnal heating cycle unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions