PAGASA's latest extended outlook forecasts a Metro Manila high of 35°C on May 1 under easterlies delivering dry air and partly cloudy skies with just 10% rain chance, anchoring trader sentiment around 35°C (36.5% implied probability) and 36°C (30.5%). Recent observations at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport—PAGASA's resolution station—hit 36.2°C on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29, exceeding some prior forecasts amid urban heat island amplification and low midday humidity (33–50%). Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 35°C if arriving early, versus prolonged clear skies pushing 36°C; model consensus leans conservative but historical May volatility at NAIA adds uncertainty. Watch morning advisories for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 1?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 1?
35°C 37%
36°C 30%
37°C 20%
34°C 6%
NEW
$12,076 Vol.
NEW
$12,076 Vol.
May 1, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
6%
35°C
37%
36°C
30%
37°C
20%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 37%
36°C 30%
37°C 20%
34°C 6%
NEW
$12,076 Vol.
NEW
$12,076 Vol.
May 1, 2026
29°C or below
$402 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$868 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$591 Vol.
1%
32°C
$2,710 Vol.
1%
33°C
$3,308 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,231 Vol.
6%
35°C
$606 Vol.
37%
36°C
$628 Vol.
30%
37°C
$1,195 Vol.
20%
38°C
$553 Vol.
2%
39°C or higher
$446 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest extended outlook forecasts a Metro Manila high of 35°C on May 1 under easterlies delivering dry air and partly cloudy skies with just 10% rain chance, anchoring trader sentiment around 35°C (36.5% implied probability) and 36°C (30.5%). Recent observations at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport—PAGASA's resolution station—hit 36.2°C on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29, exceeding some prior forecasts amid urban heat island amplification and low midday humidity (33–50%). Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 35°C if arriving early, versus prolonged clear skies pushing 36°C; model consensus leans conservative but historical May volatility at NAIA adds uncertainty. Watch morning advisories for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$12,076End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest extended outlook forecasts a Metro Manila high of 35°C on May 1 under easterlies delivering dry air and partly cloudy skies with just 10% rain chance, anchoring trader sentiment around 35°C (36.5% implied probability) and 36°C (30.5%). Recent observations at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport—PAGASA's resolution station—hit 36.2°C on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29, exceeding some prior forecasts amid urban heat island amplification and low midday humidity (33–50%). Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 35°C if arriving early, versus prolonged clear skies pushing 36°C; model consensus leans conservative but historical May volatility at NAIA adds uncertainty. Watch morning advisories for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,076End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest extended outlook forecasts a Metro Manila high of 35°C on May 1 under easterlies delivering dry air and partly cloudy skies with just 10% rain chance, anchoring trader sentiment around 35°C (36.5% implied probability) and 36°C (30.5%). Recent observations at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport—PAGASA's resolution station—hit 36.2°C on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29, exceeding some prior forecasts amid urban heat island amplification and low midday humidity (33–50%). Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 35°C if arriving early, versus prolonged clear skies pushing 36°C; model consensus leans conservative but historical May volatility at NAIA adds uncertainty. Watch morning advisories for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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