PAGASA's official forecast of a 34°C maximum for Metro Manila on June 16 anchors the leading 40.5% market-implied probability, with supporting outlooks from other models clustering near 33–35°C amid the southwest monsoon onset. High humidity, typical June cloud cover, and a 30% rain chance introduce variability that could suppress peak readings below forecast highs or allow brief spikes if clearer conditions develop. Historical June maxima average around 32°C, but recent regional trends and current steering patterns favor the upper end of the distribution, explaining the tight clustering of trader consensus on 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on June 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on June 16?
34°C 41%
35°C 25%
33°C 25%
36°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
25%
34°C
41%
35°C
25%
36°C
6%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 41%
35°C 25%
33°C 25%
36°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
28°C or below
$243 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$132 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$974 Vol.
2%
33°C
$152 Vol.
25%
34°C
$148 Vol.
41%
35°C
$121 Vol.
25%
36°C
$196 Vol.
6%
37°C
$73 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's official forecast of a 34°C maximum for Metro Manila on June 16 anchors the leading 40.5% market-implied probability, with supporting outlooks from other models clustering near 33–35°C amid the southwest monsoon onset. High humidity, typical June cloud cover, and a 30% rain chance introduce variability that could suppress peak readings below forecast highs or allow brief spikes if clearer conditions develop. Historical June maxima average around 32°C, but recent regional trends and current steering patterns favor the upper end of the distribution, explaining the tight clustering of trader consensus on 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$2,472End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's official forecast of a 34°C maximum for Metro Manila on June 16 anchors the leading 40.5% market-implied probability, with supporting outlooks from other models clustering near 33–35°C amid the southwest monsoon onset. High humidity, typical June cloud cover, and a 30% rain chance introduce variability that could suppress peak readings below forecast highs or allow brief spikes if clearer conditions develop. Historical June maxima average around 32°C, but recent regional trends and current steering patterns favor the upper end of the distribution, explaining the tight clustering of trader consensus on 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,472End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's official forecast of a 34°C maximum for Metro Manila on June 16 anchors the leading 40.5% market-implied probability, with supporting outlooks from other models clustering near 33–35°C amid the southwest monsoon onset. High humidity, typical June cloud cover, and a 30% rain chance introduce variability that could suppress peak readings below forecast highs or allow brief spikes if clearer conditions develop. Historical June maxima average around 32°C, but recent regional trends and current steering patterns favor the upper end of the distribution, explaining the tight clustering of trader consensus on 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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