Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 24°C (46.5% implied probability) for London on May 1, driven by the Met Office's latest April 30 forecast of 25°C under prolonged sunny skies and light south-easterly winds at 9-15 km/h, enabling peak heating around 2-4 p.m. Upper-air ridging blocks cooler Atlantic flows, channeling warmer continental air masses well above the early May climatological average of 17-18°C at sites like Heathrow, as confirmed by UKMO and ECMWF model consensus. BBC Weather aligns with a 25°C maximum and minimal precipitation risk (<10%), though minor uncertainty lingers from potential evening cloud incursions or thundery showers later, with overnight lows around 11°C. Final observational data will resolve the market tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 1?
Highest temperature in London on May 1?
24°C 47%
25°C 28%
23°C 21%
26°C 4.8%
NEW
$116,990 Vol.
NEW
$116,990 Vol.
May 1, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
21%
24°C
47%
25°C
28%
26°C
5%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 47%
25°C 28%
23°C 21%
26°C 4.8%
NEW
$116,990 Vol.
NEW
$116,990 Vol.
May 1, 2026
17°C or below
$27,795 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,720 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,449 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$10,586 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$18,767 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10,814 Vol.
3%
23°C
$7,571 Vol.
21%
24°C
$10,427 Vol.
47%
25°C
$7,129 Vol.
28%
26°C
$6,992 Vol.
5%
27°C or higher
$8,771 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 24°C (46.5% implied probability) for London on May 1, driven by the Met Office's latest April 30 forecast of 25°C under prolonged sunny skies and light south-easterly winds at 9-15 km/h, enabling peak heating around 2-4 p.m. Upper-air ridging blocks cooler Atlantic flows, channeling warmer continental air masses well above the early May climatological average of 17-18°C at sites like Heathrow, as confirmed by UKMO and ECMWF model consensus. BBC Weather aligns with a 25°C maximum and minimal precipitation risk (<10%), though minor uncertainty lingers from potential evening cloud incursions or thundery showers later, with overnight lows around 11°C. Final observational data will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$116,990End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 24°C (46.5% implied probability) for London on May 1, driven by the Met Office's latest April 30 forecast of 25°C under prolonged sunny skies and light south-easterly winds at 9-15 km/h, enabling peak heating around 2-4 p.m. Upper-air ridging blocks cooler Atlantic flows, channeling warmer continental air masses well above the early May climatological average of 17-18°C at sites like Heathrow, as confirmed by UKMO and ECMWF model consensus. BBC Weather aligns with a 25°C maximum and minimal precipitation risk (<10%), though minor uncertainty lingers from potential evening cloud incursions or thundery showers later, with overnight lows around 11°C. Final observational data will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$116,990End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 24°C (46.5% implied probability) for London on May 1, driven by the Met Office's latest April 30 forecast of 25°C under prolonged sunny skies and light south-easterly winds at 9-15 km/h, enabling peak heating around 2-4 p.m. Upper-air ridging blocks cooler Atlantic flows, channeling warmer continental air masses well above the early May climatological average of 17-18°C at sites like Heathrow, as confirmed by UKMO and ECMWF model consensus. BBC Weather aligns with a 25°C maximum and minimal precipitation risk (<10%), though minor uncertainty lingers from potential evening cloud incursions or thundery showers later, with overnight lows around 11°C. Final observational data will resolve the market tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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