Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to 37°C or higher as Karachi's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's recent heatwave alert for Sindh, forecasting temperatures 4–6°C above seasonal norms amid persistent high-pressure systems and continental tropical air masses. Late April highs already reached 36–39°C, building momentum into early May's pre-monsoon peak, when average daily maximums hover around 34–35°C but routinely spike during subsidence-dominated conditions. The 29% odds on exactly 36°C reflect potential coastal sea breeze moderation or minor cloud cover, per PMD outlooks, while lower outcomes fade due to scant rain prospects. Final resolution hinges on official Masroor Airbase observations, with intraday PMD updates likely to refine trajectories before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on May 1?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 1?
37°C or higher 55%
36°C 29%
35°C 3.0%
34°C 2.1%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C
29%
37°C or higher
55%
37°C or higher 55%
36°C 29%
35°C 3.0%
34°C 2.1%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
27°C or below
$1,083 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$889 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$616 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$338 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$363 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,739 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,517 Vol.
2%
35°C
$1,101 Vol.
3%
36°C
$535 Vol.
29%
37°C or higher
$481 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to 37°C or higher as Karachi's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's recent heatwave alert for Sindh, forecasting temperatures 4–6°C above seasonal norms amid persistent high-pressure systems and continental tropical air masses. Late April highs already reached 36–39°C, building momentum into early May's pre-monsoon peak, when average daily maximums hover around 34–35°C but routinely spike during subsidence-dominated conditions. The 29% odds on exactly 36°C reflect potential coastal sea breeze moderation or minor cloud cover, per PMD outlooks, while lower outcomes fade due to scant rain prospects. Final resolution hinges on official Masroor Airbase observations, with intraday PMD updates likely to refine trajectories before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$8,873End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to 37°C or higher as Karachi's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's recent heatwave alert for Sindh, forecasting temperatures 4–6°C above seasonal norms amid persistent high-pressure systems and continental tropical air masses. Late April highs already reached 36–39°C, building momentum into early May's pre-monsoon peak, when average daily maximums hover around 34–35°C but routinely spike during subsidence-dominated conditions. The 29% odds on exactly 36°C reflect potential coastal sea breeze moderation or minor cloud cover, per PMD outlooks, while lower outcomes fade due to scant rain prospects. Final resolution hinges on official Masroor Airbase observations, with intraday PMD updates likely to refine trajectories before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,873End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to 37°C or higher as Karachi's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's recent heatwave alert for Sindh, forecasting temperatures 4–6°C above seasonal norms amid persistent high-pressure systems and continental tropical air masses. Late April highs already reached 36–39°C, building momentum into early May's pre-monsoon peak, when average daily maximums hover around 34–35°C but routinely spike during subsidence-dominated conditions. The 29% odds on exactly 36°C reflect potential coastal sea breeze moderation or minor cloud cover, per PMD outlooks, while lower outcomes fade due to scant rain prospects. Final resolution hinges on official Masroor Airbase observations, with intraday PMD updates likely to refine trajectories before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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