Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest air temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 11°C at primary reporting stations, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a sharp cold front ushering serin (cool) and yağışlı (rainy) conditions across the Marmara region starting May 1, as forecast by MGM, with northerly winds and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating well below May norms of 18–22°C. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs anticipated this drop, validated by real-time METAR reports from Istanbul Airport (LTBA). Realistic challenges include rare post hoc revisions from data audits or station-specific discrepancies, though preliminary verification strongly supports resolution at 11°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
11°C 100.0%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$46,945 Vol.
$46,945 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 100.0%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$46,945 Vol.
$46,945 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C
$9,986 Vol.
100%
12°C
$5,988 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$5,472 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,884 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,796 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$388 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest air temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 11°C at primary reporting stations, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a sharp cold front ushering serin (cool) and yağışlı (rainy) conditions across the Marmara region starting May 1, as forecast by MGM, with northerly winds and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating well below May norms of 18–22°C. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs anticipated this drop, validated by real-time METAR reports from Istanbul Airport (LTBA). Realistic challenges include rare post hoc revisions from data audits or station-specific discrepancies, though preliminary verification strongly supports resolution at 11°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$46,945End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest air temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 11°C at primary reporting stations, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a sharp cold front ushering serin (cool) and yağışlı (rainy) conditions across the Marmara region starting May 1, as forecast by MGM, with northerly winds and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating well below May norms of 18–22°C. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs anticipated this drop, validated by real-time METAR reports from Istanbul Airport (LTBA). Realistic challenges include rare post hoc revisions from data audits or station-specific discrepancies, though preliminary verification strongly supports resolution at 11°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$46,945End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
Dispute window
Final
Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest air temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 11°C at primary reporting stations, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a sharp cold front ushering serin (cool) and yağışlı (rainy) conditions across the Marmara region starting May 1, as forecast by MGM, with northerly winds and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating well below May norms of 18–22°C. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs anticipated this drop, validated by real-time METAR reports from Istanbul Airport (LTBA). Realistic challenges include rare post hoc revisions from data audits or station-specific discrepancies, though preliminary verification strongly supports resolution at 11°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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