Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Houston's June 15 maximum will likely peak in the mid-80s, below the 91–92°F climatological normal, primarily due to increased cloud cover, higher boundary-layer moisture, and lighter winds limiting daytime heating. These factors create tight clustering around the 84–87°F outcomes that together exceed 59% implied probability, as small differences in afternoon solar insolation or timing of any seabreeze front can shift the exact high by 1–2°F. Historical analogs for mid-June show comparable variability when subtropical moisture is present, while official station data from Hobby Airport will determine resolution once the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on June 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on June 15?
84-85°F 33%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 20%
88-89°F 16%
NEW
$13,237 Vol.
NEW
$13,237 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
33%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
1%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 33%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 20%
88-89°F 16%
NEW
$13,237 Vol.
NEW
$13,237 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
75°F or below
$83 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$50 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$751 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$529 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$714 Vol.
20%
84-85°F
$582 Vol.
33%
86-87°F
$1,293 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$1,454 Vol.
16%
90-91°F
$1,688 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$4,542 Vol.
1%
94°F or higher
$1,582 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Houston's June 15 maximum will likely peak in the mid-80s, below the 91–92°F climatological normal, primarily due to increased cloud cover, higher boundary-layer moisture, and lighter winds limiting daytime heating. These factors create tight clustering around the 84–87°F outcomes that together exceed 59% implied probability, as small differences in afternoon solar insolation or timing of any seabreeze front can shift the exact high by 1–2°F. Historical analogs for mid-June show comparable variability when subtropical moisture is present, while official station data from Hobby Airport will determine resolution once the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$13,237End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Houston's June 15 maximum will likely peak in the mid-80s, below the 91–92°F climatological normal, primarily due to increased cloud cover, higher boundary-layer moisture, and lighter winds limiting daytime heating. These factors create tight clustering around the 84–87°F outcomes that together exceed 59% implied probability, as small differences in afternoon solar insolation or timing of any seabreeze front can shift the exact high by 1–2°F. Historical analogs for mid-June show comparable variability when subtropical moisture is present, while official station data from Hobby Airport will determine resolution once the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,237End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Houston's June 15 maximum will likely peak in the mid-80s, below the 91–92°F climatological normal, primarily due to increased cloud cover, higher boundary-layer moisture, and lighter winds limiting daytime heating. These factors create tight clustering around the 84–87°F outcomes that together exceed 59% implied probability, as small differences in afternoon solar insolation or timing of any seabreeze front can shift the exact high by 1–2°F. Historical analogs for mid-June show comparable variability when subtropical moisture is present, while official station data from Hobby Airport will determine resolution once the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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