Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters near-even implied probabilities at 49.5% for Chengdu highs of 24–28°C on May 3, reflecting latest forecast models like AccuWeather (26°C high with clouds brightening to warmer RealFeel® 27°C) and Meteum.ai (24°C under persistent overcast skies), amid a warming trend from May 1's cooler 21°C high. Key differentiators include model divergences on afternoon cloud dissipation in the Sichuan Basin—where spring stratiform clouds often cap insolation—and southerly winds aiding temperature advection; fuller clearing favors 27–28°C, while sustained overcast holds at 24–25°C. Historical early-May averages hover at 26°C, with low odds for extremes due to climatological rarity. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight ensemble runs for shifts ahead of resolution at official stations like Shuangliu Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 3?
25°C 29%
26°C 28%
24°C 19%
27°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
5%
23°C
8%
24°C
19%
25°C
29%
26°C
28%
27°C
12%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
1%
25°C 29%
26°C 28%
24°C 19%
27°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
19°C or below
$703 Vol.
1%
20°C
$336 Vol.
1%
21°C
$289 Vol.
3%
22°C
$52 Vol.
5%
23°C
$41 Vol.
8%
24°C
$43 Vol.
19%
25°C
$287 Vol.
29%
26°C
$73 Vol.
28%
27°C
$91 Vol.
12%
28°C
$69 Vol.
4%
29°C or higher
$181 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters near-even implied probabilities at 49.5% for Chengdu highs of 24–28°C on May 3, reflecting latest forecast models like AccuWeather (26°C high with clouds brightening to warmer RealFeel® 27°C) and Meteum.ai (24°C under persistent overcast skies), amid a warming trend from May 1's cooler 21°C high. Key differentiators include model divergences on afternoon cloud dissipation in the Sichuan Basin—where spring stratiform clouds often cap insolation—and southerly winds aiding temperature advection; fuller clearing favors 27–28°C, while sustained overcast holds at 24–25°C. Historical early-May averages hover at 26°C, with low odds for extremes due to climatological rarity. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight ensemble runs for shifts ahead of resolution at official stations like Shuangliu Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,163End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters near-even implied probabilities at 49.5% for Chengdu highs of 24–28°C on May 3, reflecting latest forecast models like AccuWeather (26°C high with clouds brightening to warmer RealFeel® 27°C) and Meteum.ai (24°C under persistent overcast skies), amid a warming trend from May 1's cooler 21°C high. Key differentiators include model divergences on afternoon cloud dissipation in the Sichuan Basin—where spring stratiform clouds often cap insolation—and southerly winds aiding temperature advection; fuller clearing favors 27–28°C, while sustained overcast holds at 24–25°C. Historical early-May averages hover at 26°C, with low odds for extremes due to climatological rarity. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight ensemble runs for shifts ahead of resolution at official stations like Shuangliu Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,163End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters near-even implied probabilities at 49.5% for Chengdu highs of 24–28°C on May 3, reflecting latest forecast models like AccuWeather (26°C high with clouds brightening to warmer RealFeel® 27°C) and Meteum.ai (24°C under persistent overcast skies), amid a warming trend from May 1's cooler 21°C high. Key differentiators include model divergences on afternoon cloud dissipation in the Sichuan Basin—where spring stratiform clouds often cap insolation—and southerly winds aiding temperature advection; fuller clearing favors 27–28°C, while sustained overcast holds at 24–25°C. Historical early-May averages hover at 26°C, with low odds for extremes due to climatological rarity. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight ensemble runs for shifts ahead of resolution at official stations like Shuangliu Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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