Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 26-28°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, fueling tight trader sentiment with 27°C at 38% implied probability and 28°C at 34%. This positioning stems from April's recent warming trend—yesterday's high of 24.4°C and today's projected 28°C—transitioning into early May's typical spring highs averaging 25-27°C, though model spreads reflect uncertainty in cloud cover thickness and wind persistence that could cap or boost peaks by 1-2°C. Key differentiators include ECMWF's drier outlook favoring 28°C versus GFS ensembles leaning cooler at 26°C; watch for CMA's evening update and station observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 1?
27°C 38%
28°C 35%
26°C 23%
29°C 7%
NEW
$27,822 Vol.
NEW
$27,822 Vol.
May 1, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
23%
27°C
38%
28°C
35%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 38%
28°C 35%
26°C 23%
29°C 7%
NEW
$27,822 Vol.
NEW
$27,822 Vol.
May 1, 2026
23°C or below
$4,041 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,302 Vol.
1%
25°C
$3,198 Vol.
3%
26°C
$2,057 Vol.
23%
27°C
$2,306 Vol.
38%
28°C
$1,202 Vol.
35%
29°C
$1,374 Vol.
7%
30°C
$3,326 Vol.
1%
31°C
$4,154 Vol.
1%
32°C
$2,712 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,627 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 26-28°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, fueling tight trader sentiment with 27°C at 38% implied probability and 28°C at 34%. This positioning stems from April's recent warming trend—yesterday's high of 24.4°C and today's projected 28°C—transitioning into early May's typical spring highs averaging 25-27°C, though model spreads reflect uncertainty in cloud cover thickness and wind persistence that could cap or boost peaks by 1-2°C. Key differentiators include ECMWF's drier outlook favoring 28°C versus GFS ensembles leaning cooler at 26°C; watch for CMA's evening update and station observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$27,822End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 26-28°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, fueling tight trader sentiment with 27°C at 38% implied probability and 28°C at 34%. This positioning stems from April's recent warming trend—yesterday's high of 24.4°C and today's projected 28°C—transitioning into early May's typical spring highs averaging 25-27°C, though model spreads reflect uncertainty in cloud cover thickness and wind persistence that could cap or boost peaks by 1-2°C. Key differentiators include ECMWF's drier outlook favoring 28°C versus GFS ensembles leaning cooler at 26°C; watch for CMA's evening update and station observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,822End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 26-28°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, fueling tight trader sentiment with 27°C at 38% implied probability and 28°C at 34%. This positioning stems from April's recent warming trend—yesterday's high of 24.4°C and today's projected 28°C—transitioning into early May's typical spring highs averaging 25-27°C, though model spreads reflect uncertainty in cloud cover thickness and wind persistence that could cap or boost peaks by 1-2°C. Key differentiators include ECMWF's drier outlook favoring 28°C versus GFS ensembles leaning cooler at 26°C; watch for CMA's evening update and station observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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