GDP growth in 2026

Name: GDP growth in 2026
Start: 2025-11-12T23:22:20.740Z
End: 2027-01-29T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 34%

1.0–1.5% 23.1%

1.5–2.0% 23.0%

2.0–2.5% 13%

$27,217 Vol.

Jan 29, 2027

<0.5%

$3,893 Vol.

0.5–1.0%

$15,121 Vol.

1.0–1.5%

$1,502 Vol.

23%

1.5–2.0%

$1,319 Vol.

23%

2.0–2.5%

$1,446 Vol.

13%

>2.5%

$3,991 Vol.

34%

>2.5% 34%

1.0–1.5% 23.1%

1.5–2.0% 23.0%

2.0–2.5% 13%

$27,217 Vol.

Jan 29, 2027

<0.5%

$3,893 Vol.

0.5–1.0%

$15,121 Vol.

1.0–1.5%

$1,502 Vol.

23%

1.5–2.0%

$1,319 Vol.

23%

2.0–2.5%

$1,446 Vol.

13%

>2.5%

$3,991 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"GDP growth in 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">2.5%" at 34%, followed by "1.0–1.5%" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "GDP growth in 2026" has generated $27.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "GDP growth in 2026," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "GDP growth in 2026" is ">2.5%" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.0–1.5%" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "GDP growth in 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "GDP growth in 2026." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $27.2K traded on “GDP growth in 2026,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "GDP growth in 2026," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 34¢ for ">2.5%" in the "GDP growth in 2026" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 34% chance that ">2.5%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 34¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 66¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "GDP growth in 2026" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jan 29, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "GDP growth in 2026" market has an active community of 118 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "GDP growth in 2026." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

GDP growth in 2026

GDP growth in 2026

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments (118)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "GDP growth in 2026" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "GDP growth in 2026" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "GDP growth in 2026"?

What are the current odds for "GDP growth in 2026"?

How will "GDP growth in 2026" be resolved?

Can I follow "GDP growth in 2026" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "GDP growth in 2026" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "GDP growth in 2026"?

What does a price of 34¢ for ">2.5%" mean?

When does the "GDP growth in 2026" market close?

What are traders saying about "GDP growth in 2026"?

What is Polymarket?