**Ongoing federal police and Supreme Court investigations into Flávio Bolsonaro center on alleged defamation of President Lula (initiated April 2026 via Justice Alexandre de Moraes) and financial ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro following May 2026 leaks of messages showing requests for millions in funding for a biopic.** These probes, including scrutiny of social media posts and private funding arrangements, have damaged his 2026 presidential prospects but produced no formal charges or arrest as of early June. Brazilian judicial timelines, combined with the short window until the September 30 resolution date, have kept the trader consensus on "No" (59.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome, reflecting the pace of investigations rather than their absence. No major new official actions or court rulings have accelerated proceedings in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing federal police and Supreme Court investigations into Flávio Bolsonaro center on alleged defamation of President Lula (initiated April 2026 via Justice Alexandre de Moraes) and financial ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro following May 2026 leaks of messages showing requests for millions in funding for a biopic.** These probes, including scrutiny of social media posts and private funding arrangements, have damaged his 2026 presidential prospects but produced no formal charges or arrest as of early June. Brazilian judicial timelines, combined with the short window until the September 30 resolution date, have kept the trader consensus on "No" (59.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome, reflecting the pace of investigations rather than their absence. No major new official actions or court rulings have accelerated proceedings in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volume
$999End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing federal police and Supreme Court investigations into Flávio Bolsonaro center on alleged defamation of President Lula (initiated April 2026 via Justice Alexandre de Moraes) and financial ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro following May 2026 leaks of messages showing requests for millions in funding for a biopic.** These probes, including scrutiny of social media posts and private funding arrangements, have damaged his 2026 presidential prospects but produced no formal charges or arrest as of early June. Brazilian judicial timelines, combined with the short window until the September 30 resolution date, have kept the trader consensus on "No" (59.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome, reflecting the pace of investigations rather than their absence. No major new official actions or court rulings have accelerated proceedings in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$999End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing federal police and Supreme Court investigations into Flávio Bolsonaro center on alleged defamation of President Lula (initiated April 2026 via Justice Alexandre de Moraes) and financial ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro following May 2026 leaks of messages showing requests for millions in funding for a biopic.** These probes, including scrutiny of social media posts and private funding arrangements, have damaged his 2026 presidential prospects but produced no formal charges or arrest as of early June. Brazilian judicial timelines, combined with the short window until the September 30 resolution date, have kept the trader consensus on "No" (59.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome, reflecting the pace of investigations rather than their absence. No major new official actions or court rulings have accelerated proceedings in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions