No credible developments indicate any active federal investigation or impending charges against Jerome Powell as of mid-June 2026. The prior DOJ probe into Fed headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, opened in early 2026, was closed without charges on April 24 after a judge found essentially no evidence of wrongdoing; it was transferred to the Fed's inspector general. Powell completed his term as Chair in May and transitioned to governor, with no subsequent allegations, subpoenas, or official actions reported. Traders assign 98.6% probability to no charges by June 30 due to this resolved timeline, the high evidentiary bar for indicting a sitting or recent Fed official, and the absence of political or legal catalysts in the narrow remaining window. Only an unforeseen late revelation of misconduct could shift the implied probability.