Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.8% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027, driven by the central bank's deep institutional entrenchment since 1913 and absence of any advancing legislation in Congress, such as H.R. 1846, despite fringe calls from figures like radio host Gary Kaltbaum. Recent developments, including Jerome Powell's announcement to remain on the Fed board post-May 15 chair transition amid Trump administration legal challenges to its independence, and incoming chair Kevin Warsh's focus on overhauling operations—like aggressively shrinking the $6.7 trillion balance sheet—underscore reform over dissolution. Strong bipartisan support for Fed-led monetary policy stability outweighs abolition rhetoric, though a severe economic crisis or populist mandate shift could theoretically catalyze unlikely congressional action before year-end.