The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as acting president has left core Chavista institutions and security structures intact, with no elections scheduled and opposition figures like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González still sidelined or in exile. This continuity underpins trader consensus pricing Maduro as the leading outcome for end-2026 leadership, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, U.S. emphasis on stabilization over immediate transition, and absence of viable mechanisms for power transfer within the resolution window. Delcy Rodríguez ranks second amid her interim role and family ties to the National Assembly, while lower probabilities for opposition or external figures track ongoing repression, lack of scheduled votes, and historical patterns of incumbency survival in similar hybrid systems.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 73.4%
Delcy Rodríguez 17%
María Corina Machado 4.0%
Jorge Rodríguez <1%
$90,874,109 Vol.
$90,874,109 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
73%
Delcy Rodríguez
17%
María Corina Machado
4%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 73.4%
Delcy Rodríguez 17%
María Corina Machado 4.0%
Jorge Rodríguez <1%
$90,874,109 Vol.
$90,874,109 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,843,079 Vol.
73%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,640,251 Vol.
17%
María Corina Machado
$1,221,767 Vol.
4%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,041,522 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$1,284,411 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,016,810 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,894,420 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$951,048 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,504,779 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$696,281 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,332,554 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$3,780,369 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,105,284 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,804,268 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,439,204 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,318,480 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as acting president has left core Chavista institutions and security structures intact, with no elections scheduled and opposition figures like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González still sidelined or in exile. This continuity underpins trader consensus pricing Maduro as the leading outcome for end-2026 leadership, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, U.S. emphasis on stabilization over immediate transition, and absence of viable mechanisms for power transfer within the resolution window. Delcy Rodríguez ranks second amid her interim role and family ties to the National Assembly, while lower probabilities for opposition or external figures track ongoing repression, lack of scheduled votes, and historical patterns of incumbency survival in similar hybrid systems.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$90,874,109End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as acting president has left core Chavista institutions and security structures intact, with no elections scheduled and opposition figures like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González still sidelined or in exile. This continuity underpins trader consensus pricing Maduro as the leading outcome for end-2026 leadership, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, U.S. emphasis on stabilization over immediate transition, and absence of viable mechanisms for power transfer within the resolution window. Delcy Rodríguez ranks second amid her interim role and family ties to the National Assembly, while lower probabilities for opposition or external figures track ongoing repression, lack of scheduled votes, and historical patterns of incumbency survival in similar hybrid systems.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$90,874,109End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as acting president has left core Chavista institutions and security structures intact, with no elections scheduled and opposition figures like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González still sidelined or in exile. This continuity underpins trader consensus pricing Maduro as the leading outcome for end-2026 leadership, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, U.S. emphasis on stabilization over immediate transition, and absence of viable mechanisms for power transfer within the resolution window. Delcy Rodríguez ranks second amid her interim role and family ties to the National Assembly, while lower probabilities for opposition or external figures track ongoing repression, lack of scheduled votes, and historical patterns of incumbency survival in similar hybrid systems.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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