Trader consensus heavily favors the 640-650 billion outcome at 81.5% implied probability, aligning with Bloomberg Billionaires Index's latest reading of $645 billion for Elon Musk as of April 30, 2026, reflecting his dominant stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. This positioning stems from SpaceX's confidential IPO filing earlier this month, targeting a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation after its early-2026 merger with xAI boosted combined worth to $1.25 trillion, alongside Tesla shares closing at $374.84 amid steady EV demand and autonomy hype. Minor Tesla volatility and final index tweaks pose upset risks, but overwhelming precursor momentum from these verified corporate milestones cements the frontrunner status ahead of daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated640-650b 81%
650-660b 18%
630-640b 8.1%
660-670b 3.5%
$105,191 Vol.
$105,191 Vol.
<600b
<1%
600-610b
<1%
610-620b
1%
620-630b
2%
630-640b
8%
640-650b
81%
650-660b
28%
660-670b
4%
670b+
2%
640-650b 81%
650-660b 18%
630-640b 8.1%
660-670b 3.5%
$105,191 Vol.
$105,191 Vol.
<600b
<1%
600-610b
<1%
610-620b
1%
620-630b
2%
630-640b
8%
640-650b
81%
650-660b
28%
660-670b
4%
670b+
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors the 640-650 billion outcome at 81.5% implied probability, aligning with Bloomberg Billionaires Index's latest reading of $645 billion for Elon Musk as of April 30, 2026, reflecting his dominant stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. This positioning stems from SpaceX's confidential IPO filing earlier this month, targeting a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation after its early-2026 merger with xAI boosted combined worth to $1.25 trillion, alongside Tesla shares closing at $374.84 amid steady EV demand and autonomy hype. Minor Tesla volatility and final index tweaks pose upset risks, but overwhelming precursor momentum from these verified corporate milestones cements the frontrunner status ahead of daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions