Polls show Xavier Becerra rising among Democrats while Bianco holds about 39% support among Republican voters

Chad Bianco rises to 3%1%

Recent polling data showed Bianco maintaining a solid Republican base but facing challenges in the broader electorate, reflected in modest market movement.

Continued fundraising and endorsements from Bay Area leaders fail to translate into broader voter support

Matt Mahan dips to 5%4%

Despite local backing, lack of statewide momentum and strong competition pushed.

Former Democratic candidate Betty Yee drops out of the race, consolidating Democratic opposition and indirectly affecting Hilton’s relative position

Steve Hilton drops to 5%7%

(Yee’s exit reshaped the race dynamics, reducing uncertainty and impacting Hilton’s support.)

Steyer's campaign hits peak market confidence at 70% following strong fundraising reports and positive polling data showing increased name recognition and support

Tom Steyer surges to 70%33%

This surge reflects growing optimism about Steyer's viability as a candidate.

Announcement of multiple upcoming gubernatorial debates including Nexstar debate on April 22, with Bianco confirmed as a participant

Chad Bianco drops to 3%6%

The scheduled debates provided Bianco a platform to present his policies, but the crowded field and strong competition may have limited his market gains.

Media analysis frames Mahan as a moderate alternative to progressive frontrunners, but notes uphill battle in statewide appeal

Matt Mahan jumps to 14%7%

Positive coverage of his centrist positioning briefly lifted market confidence.

President Donald Trump endorses Republican candidate Steve Hilton, Bianco's main GOP rival

Chad Bianco drops to 9%5%

Trump's endorsement of Hilton likely shifted some Republican support away from Bianco, causing a market decline in his probability.

Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton’s gubernatorial candidacy, boosting his profile among conservative voters

Steve Hilton jumps to 12%7%

(Trump’s endorsement provided a notable campaign boost.)

Poll shows Chad Bianco tied for lead among California governor hopefuls with Steve Hilton at 14%

Chad Bianco jumps to 14%5%

Polling data indicating Bianco's competitive position in the race increased market confidence in his chances.

Steyer's campaign ramps up advertising emphasizing housing affordability and corporate tax reforms; media coverage highlights his financial resources and outsider status

Tom Steyer jumps to 13%7%

Increased campaign activity and media attention contributed to a moderate

Mahan hosts gubernatorial candidates in San Jose for housing and homelessness discussions, emphasizing pragmatic solutions

Matt Mahan rises to 12%4%

Effort to build coalition and highlight policy expertise caused a modest.

Chad Bianco orders seizure of over 650,000 ballots from a 2025 special election, citing election integrity concerns

Chad Bianco jumps to 14%11%

This high-profile legal action brought national attention to Bianco, boosting his visibility and support among voters concerned about election security.

Hilton participates in California Association of Realtors’ Homeownership Matters Forum, emphasizing housing affordability and practical solutions

Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%

(This event reinforced his focus on key voter issues, causing a moderate

Polls show Mahan struggling to gain traction statewide despite Silicon Valley support

Matt Mahan drops to 7%7%

Polling data reflecting limited name recognition and voter support led to a notable.

Steyer's campaign gains endorsement from California Nurses Association, highlighting his support for single-payer health care and progressive policies

Tom Steyer jumps to 10%6%

The endorsement from a major union boosted Steyer's credibility and support among progressive voters.

Caruso confirms he will not run for public office "at this time," reaffirming his withdrawal and causing market

Rick Caruso drops to 0%14%

Caruso confirms he will not run for public office "at this time," reaffirming his withdrawal and causing market

Criticism from progressive rivals and labor groups intensifies over Mahan’s ties to wealthy donors and tough-on-crime stance

Matt Mahan dips to 21%3%

Pushback from left-leaning factions and unions dampened enthusiasm, contributing to gradual.

The filing deadline for the LA mayoral race elapsed with no Caruso filing, confirming his absence from the ballot and solidifying the outcome’s(no separate source needed –

The filing deadline for the LA mayoral race elapsed with no Caruso filing, confirming his absence from the ballot and solidifying the outcome’s(no separate source needed – deadline is public record).

Caruso publicly states he is still considering a mayoral run but remains uncertain, causing minor market fluctuations

Rick Caruso rises to 14%3%

Caruso publicly states he is still considering a mayoral run but remains uncertain, causing minor market fluctuations

The Post (NY Post) noted Caruso was reconsidering a mayoral bid after the Bass report, but the filing deadline (Feb 7) passed without a declaration, cementing the 0 %

The Post (NY Post) noted Caruso was reconsidering a mayoral bid after the Bass report, but the filing deadline (Feb 7) passed without a declaration, cementing the 0 %

Los Angeles Times reports Mayor Karen Bass allegedly watered down a Palisades Fire after-action report;

Rick Caruso jumps to 11%11%

Caruso publicly criticizes Bass and reconsiders a mayoral run, briefly raising market hopes

Los Angeles Times reported that Mayor Karen Bass allegedly watered down the Palisades fire after‑action report;

Caruso publicly condemned the move, briefly reviving talk of a mayoral run but the market remained at 0 % as filing deadlines loomed

KTVU and Fox 11 co-host gubernatorial debate; Mahan participates amid crowded field

Matt Mahan dips to 24%3%

Debate exposure provided some visibility but did not significantly improve standing, leading to a slight.

Early fundraising reports show Mahan raising over $7 million quickly, backed by Silicon Valley tech leaders opposing wealth tax

Matt Mahan rises to 35%2%

Strong fundraising boosted confidence in his campaign viability, supporting a.

Matt Mahan officially announces candidacy for California governor, positioning as centrist critic of Newsom and focusing on homelessness and public safety

Matt Mahan surges to 42%33%

His formal entry energized markets, highlighting his pragmatic approach and Silicon Valley ties, causing a sharp.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters the governor's race, prompting Porter to send a desperate fundraising text warning of losing the governorship, signaling her campaign's weakening

Katie Porter dips to 5%3%

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters the governor's race, prompting Porter to send a desperate fundraising text warning of losing the governorship, signaling her campaign's weakening position

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan publicly signals interest in California governor race amid unsettled field

Matt Mahan plunges to 9%37%

Mahan's initial consideration of a run introduced uncertainty, but lack of formal announcement and crowded field kept his odds low.

Poll shows Hilton and Chad Bianco leading Republican candidates with Hilton at 17%, signaling strong GOP support

Steve Hilton jumps to 20%11%

(Positive polling among Republicans raised his market

Analysis highlights the difficulty of the 2026 governor’s race and notes Caruso among prominent figures who declined to run, solidifying market expectations of his non-candidacy

Rick Caruso dips to 2%2%

Analysis highlights the difficulty of the 2026 governor’s race and notes Caruso among prominent figures who declined to run, solidifying market expectations of his non-candidacy

ABC 7 quoted Caruso saying family considerations drove his withdrawal, underscoring the “personal‑impact” rationale and keeping the

ABC 7 quoted Caruso saying family considerations drove his withdrawal, underscoring the “personal‑impact” rationale and keeping the

KFI 640 reported Caruso’s decision not to run, echoing the Jan 16 announcement and reinforcing market sentiment that his candidacy was dead

KFI 640 reported Caruso’s decision not to run, echoing the Jan 16 announcement and reinforcing market sentiment that his candidacy was dead

Media coverage confirms Caruso’s withdrawal from both races, emphasizing his disappointment and focus on nonprofit work, reinforcing market decline

Rick Caruso dips to 4%1%

Media coverage confirms Caruso’s withdrawal from both races, emphasizing his disappointment and focus on nonprofit work, reinforcing market decline

Rick Caruso officially announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor, citing family considerations and political climate, causing a sharp market

Rick Caruso drops to 5%9%

Rick Caruso officially announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor, citing family considerations and political climate, causing a sharp market

Polls and campaign ads show Steyer targeting utility costs and promising to lower electricity bills by ending monopolies; campaign releases creative commercials and social media posts

Tom Steyer jumps to 25%12%

Steyer's focus on utility costs and affordability resonated with voters, causing a notable

Chad Bianco visits Skid Row to highlight his law-and-order platform on homelessness

Chad Bianco dips to 7%1%

Bianco's publicized visit to Skid Row emphasized his tough stance on homelessness, reinforcing his campaign themes but drawing criticism, which may have tempered market enthusiasm.

Participation in California State Association of Counties gubernatorial candidate forum, showcasing Hilton’s policy positions alongside major candidates

Steve Hilton drops to 9%7%

(The forum provided exposure but did not significantly boost his standing amid strong competition.)

Polls show Porter slipping behind Swalwell and Republican candidates amid ongoing negative coverage and a crowded field, reflecting declining support

Katie Porter drops to 8%8%

Polls show Porter slipping behind Swalwell and Republican candidates amid ongoing negative coverage and a crowded field, reflecting declining support

California Democrats Eric Swalwell announces run for governor, adding to crowded Democratic field including Steyer; Swalwell emphasizes affordability and fighting Trump, increasing competition

Tom Steyer dips to 12%4%

Swalwell's entry intensified competition among Democrats, likely pressuring Steyer's market position downward.

Eric Swalwell announces his run for governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, entering the race as a moderate Democrat and splitting the Democratic vote, putting pressure on Porter

Katie Porter dips to 16%4%

Eric Swalwell announces his run for governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, entering the race as a moderate Democrat and splitting the Democratic vote, putting pressure on Porter

Billionaire Tom Steyer files papers to run for governor, highlighting his history of political donations and environmental activism; media coverage notes his vocal criticism of President Trump and self-financing potential

Tom Steyer dips to 16%2%

Further media coverage reinforced Steyer's profile but did not immediately boost market confidence.

Tom Steyer officially announces candidacy for California governor, pledging to tackle affordability crisis and break utility monopolies; campaign launch video emphasizes making corporations pay their fair share

Tom Steyer plunges to 18%31%

This formal announcement marked Steyer's entry into the crowded race, focusing on housing and utility costs, which initially caused a sharp drop in market confidence.

Hilton criticizes Governor Newsom’s climate policies at COP30 summit, accusing him of hypocrisy over Amazon oil imports, gaining media attention

Steve Hilton jumps to 17%9%

(Hilton’s strong stance on climate hypocrisy briefly increased his support.)

Rick Caruso hosts a town hall criticizing Mayor Karen Bass’s handling of the Palisades Fire, increasing his political profile and briefly raising market optimism

Rick Caruso rises to 11%4%

Rick Caruso hosts a town hall criticizing Mayor Karen Bass’s handling of the Palisades Fire, increasing his political profile and briefly raising market optimism

Emerson College poll shows Steve Hilton leading California governor race with 16%, narrowly ahead of Democrat Katie Porter at 15%

Steve Hilton rises to 9%3%

(This poll boost reflected growing recognition and momentum for Hilton.)

Rick Caruso emerges as a potential moderate candidate for California governor amid a crowded field, with speculation about his entry boosting market interest

Rick Caruso emerges as a potential moderate candidate for California governor amid a crowded field, with speculation about his entry boosting market interest

Media reports reveal allegations from Porter's ex-husband accusing her of abusive behavior, including dumping scalding mashed potatoes on his head, generating negative headlines

Katie Porter dips to 11%2%

Media reports reveal allegations from Porter's ex-husband accusing her of abusive behavior, including dumping scalding mashed potatoes on his head, generating negative headlines

A leaked 2021 video surfaces showing Porter angrily shouting at a staffer during a Zoom call, further harming her campaign's reputation

Katie Porter dips to 13%1%

A leaked 2021 video surfaces showing Porter angrily shouting at a staffer during a Zoom call, further harming her campaign's reputation

Katie Porter storms out of a CBS News interview after being asked tough questions about her gubernatorial bid, a video that goes viral and damages her public image

Katie Porter drops to 14%5%

Katie Porter storms out of a CBS News interview after being asked tough questions about her gubernatorial bid, a video that goes viral and damages her public image

Polls show Katie Porter emerging as a front-runner in the governor's race after Kamala Harris announces she will not run, boosting her early support

Polls show Katie Porter emerging as a front-runner in the governor's race after Kamala Harris announces she will not run, boosting her early support

Steve Hilton officially launches his California gubernatorial campaign with a strong anti-corruption and anti-fraud platform, including the launch of Califraud.com to report government fraud

Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%

(This launch initially generated high interest but was followed by a sharp drop as the crowded field and early polling settled.)

Katie Porter officially launches her campaign for California governor, emphasizing her progressive credentials and opposition to Donald Trump, initially positioning her as a

Katie Porter officially launches her campaign for California governor, emphasizing her progressive credentials and opposition to Donald Trump, initially positioning her as a frontrunner

Chad Bianco announces run for California governor, becoming the first major Republican candidate in the race

Chad Bianco plunges to 1%49%

This announcement marked Bianco's entry into the race, initially generating high market interest that quickly adjusted as the field developed.