Skip to main content
icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Elections·UK

Next First Minister of Scotland?

icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Elections·UK

Next First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney 96.3%

Anas Sarwar 6.7%

Gillian Mackay 1.4%

Russell Findlay 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW

John Swinney 96.3%

Anas Sarwar 6.7%

Gillian Mackay 1.4%

Russell Findlay 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for John Swinney

John Swinney

$2,100 Vol.

96%

icon for Anas Sarwar

Anas Sarwar

$851 Vol.

7%

icon for Gillian Mackay

Gillian Mackay

$296 Vol.

1%

icon for Russell Findlay

Russell Findlay

$314 Vol.

1%

icon for Ross Greer

Ross Greer

$295 Vol.

1%

icon for Alex Cole-Hamilton

Alex Cole-Hamilton

$387 Vol.

1%

icon for Malcolm Offord

Malcolm Offord

$280 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors incumbent SNP leader John Swinney to serve as First Minister following the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, driven by recent MRP polling like YouGov's April projection of an SNP majority under the additional member proportional representation system. SNP constituency voting intentions lead at 35% per latest averages, ahead of Reform UK (19%) and Labour (18%), bolstered by steady recovery from prior by-election setbacks and no recent leadership challenges. The final STV leaders' debate underscored SNP priorities amid a fragmented opposition. While commanding at 96%, a dramatic late polling shift, low pro-SNP turnout, or failure to form a majority government could elevate Scottish Labour's Anas Sarwar or enable coalition alternatives.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,524
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors incumbent SNP leader John Swinney to serve as First Minister following the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, driven by recent MRP polling like YouGov's April projection of an SNP majority under the additional member proportional representation system. SNP constituency voting intentions lead at 35% per latest averages, ahead of Reform UK (19%) and Labour (18%), bolstered by steady recovery from prior by-election setbacks and no recent leadership challenges. The final STV leaders' debate underscored SNP priorities amid a fragmented opposition. While commanding at 96%, a dramatic late polling shift, low pro-SNP turnout, or failure to form a majority government could elevate Scottish Labour's Anas Sarwar or enable coalition alternatives.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,524
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?

Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?

90%
icon for Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

99%
icon for Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

33%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next First Minister of Scotland?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Swinney" at 96%, followed by "Anas Sarwar" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next First Minister of Scotland?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next First Minister of Scotland?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next First Minister of Scotland?" is "John Swinney" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Anas Sarwar" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next First Minister of Scotland?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.