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icon for California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Politics·Primaries

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

icon for California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Politics·Primaries

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

Tom Steyer 37%

Xavier Becerra 32%

Steve Hilton 29%

Matt Mahan 2.0%

Polymarket

$14,417 Vol.

Tom Steyer 37%

Xavier Becerra 32%

Steve Hilton 29%

Matt Mahan 2.0%

Polymarket

$14,417 Vol.

Tom Steyer

$2,445 Vol.

37%

Xavier Becerra

$3,713 Vol.

32%

Steve Hilton

$975 Vol.

29%

Matt Mahan

$1,040 Vol.

2%

Katie Porter

$636 Vol.

1%

Nicki Minaj

$429 Vol.

1%

Chad Bianco

$564 Vol.

1%

Carolina Buhler

$430 Vol.

1%

Elaine Culotti

$340 Vol.

1%

Derek Grasty

$493 Vol.

1%

Leo Zacky

$476 Vol.

1%

Thunder Parley

$321 Vol.

<1%

Raji Rab

$472 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$396 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$448 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$364 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$474 Vol.

<1%

Ramsey Robinson

$401 Vol.

<1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, trader consensus favors Democrat Tom Steyer at 36.5% for first place, closely trailed by Xavier Becerra at 31.5% and Republican Steve Hilton at 29%, reflecting a fragmented field where no candidate has broken away amid split Democratic and Republican votes. Recent polls, including a post-debate survey from late April showing Becerra surging to tie Hilton while Steyer closes the gap, underscore the volatility following the April 29 Pomona College debate, marked by heated clashes between Becerra and Hilton over issues like homelessness emergency declarations and education policy. The economy ranks as voters' top concern, with undecideds at 20-25% in surveys; late endorsements, ad blitzes, or turnout shifts in key regions could propel one contender to secure the lead and advance alongside a rival.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$14,417
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, trader consensus favors Democrat Tom Steyer at 36.5% for first place, closely trailed by Xavier Becerra at 31.5% and Republican Steve Hilton at 29%, reflecting a fragmented field where no candidate has broken away amid split Democratic and Republican votes. Recent polls, including a post-debate survey from late April showing Becerra surging to tie Hilton while Steyer closes the gap, underscore the volatility following the April 29 Pomona College debate, marked by heated clashes between Becerra and Hilton over issues like homelessness emergency declarations and education policy. The economy ranks as voters' top concern, with undecideds at 20-25% in surveys; late endorsements, ad blitzes, or turnout shifts in key regions could propel one contender to secure the lead and advance alongside a rival.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$14,417
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Related

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icon for Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Primary Election: First Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 37%, followed by "Xavier Becerra" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Primary Election: First Place" has generated $14.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Primary Election: First Place," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Primary Election: First Place" is "Tom Steyer" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Primary Election: First Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.