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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

icon for California Governor Election Winner
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Tom Steyer 43.4%

Xavier Becerra 36.9%

Steve Hilton 8.4%

Katie Porter 4.1%

Polymarket

$15,881,678 Vol.

Tom Steyer 43.4%

Xavier Becerra 36.9%

Steve Hilton 8.4%

Katie Porter 4.1%

Polymarket

$15,881,678 Vol.

Tom Steyer

$3,166,886 Vol.

43%

Xavier Becerra

$696,554 Vol.

37%

Steve Hilton

$1,078,921 Vol.

8%

Katie Porter

$922,713 Vol.

4%

Chad Bianco

$999,851 Vol.

4%

Matt Mahan

$475,443 Vol.

3%

Rick Caruso

$589,873 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$379,756 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$428,287 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$588,145 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$474,586 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$360,901 Vol.

<1%

Elaine Culotti

$247,486 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$623,179 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$572,413 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$526,478 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$463,763 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$940,101 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$573,574 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell

$532,793 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$249,489 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$541,420 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$469,489 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Xavier Becerra's surge in recent polls, propelled by Eric Swalwell's mid-April withdrawal amid sexual misconduct allegations, has narrowed his gap with frontrunner Tom Steyer, hitting 24% to Steyer's 15% in the latest Gudelunas survey of likely primary voters while leading or tying in others like IVN and Emerson. Polymarket traders, however, price Steyer at 43.4% implied probability for the general election win versus Becerra's 37%, betting on Steyer's $132 million self-funding edge and name recognition despite Becerra's momentum from government experience and Latino outreach. California's top-two primary on June 2 heightens risks of Democratic vote-splitting allowing Republicans like Steve Hilton (8.5%) to advance, keeping the race tightly contested ahead of potential debates and endorsements.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$15,881,678
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Xavier Becerra's surge in recent polls, propelled by Eric Swalwell's mid-April withdrawal amid sexual misconduct allegations, has narrowed his gap with frontrunner Tom Steyer, hitting 24% to Steyer's 15% in the latest Gudelunas survey of likely primary voters while leading or tying in others like IVN and Emerson. Polymarket traders, however, price Steyer at 43.4% implied probability for the general election win versus Becerra's 37%, betting on Steyer's $132 million self-funding edge and name recognition despite Becerra's momentum from government experience and Latino outreach. California's top-two primary on June 2 heightens risks of Democratic vote-splitting allowing Republicans like Steve Hilton (8.5%) to advance, keeping the race tightly contested ahead of potential debates and endorsements.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$15,881,678
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 43%, followed by "Xavier Becerra" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $15.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Tom Steyer" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.