The most recent magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026, at a 35 km depth along the subduction interface where the Pacific plate thrusts beneath the Okhotsk plate, according to USGS data—this remains the sole M7+ event worldwide in the past 10 days, following a M7.4 in Indonesia's Molucca Sea on April 1. Global M7+ quakes average 16-20 annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, occurring randomly along active plate boundaries without short-term predictability, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline rate amid quiet seismicity, with resolution hinging on USGS significant earthquake listings; real-time global network updates continue hourly, flagging any qualifying events in high-activity zones like the Ring of Fire.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
$15,676 Vol.
May 31, 2026
April 30
6%
May 15
50%
May 30
74%
$15,676 Vol.
April 30
$9,588 Vol.
6%
May 15
$1,428 Vol.
50%
May 30
$4,711 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The most recent magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026, at a 35 km depth along the subduction interface where the Pacific plate thrusts beneath the Okhotsk plate, according to USGS data—this remains the sole M7+ event worldwide in the past 10 days, following a M7.4 in Indonesia's Molucca Sea on April 1. Global M7+ quakes average 16-20 annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, occurring randomly along active plate boundaries without short-term predictability, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline rate amid quiet seismicity, with resolution hinging on USGS significant earthquake listings; real-time global network updates continue hourly, flagging any qualifying events in high-activity zones like the Ring of Fire.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$15,676End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The most recent magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026, at a 35 km depth along the subduction interface where the Pacific plate thrusts beneath the Okhotsk plate, according to USGS data—this remains the sole M7+ event worldwide in the past 10 days, following a M7.4 in Indonesia's Molucca Sea on April 1. Global M7+ quakes average 16-20 annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, occurring randomly along active plate boundaries without short-term predictability, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline rate amid quiet seismicity, with resolution hinging on USGS significant earthquake listings; real-time global network updates continue hourly, flagging any qualifying events in high-activity zones like the Ring of Fire.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$15,676End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The most recent magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026, at a 35 km depth along the subduction interface where the Pacific plate thrusts beneath the Okhotsk plate, according to USGS data—this remains the sole M7+ event worldwide in the past 10 days, following a M7.4 in Indonesia's Molucca Sea on April 1. Global M7+ quakes average 16-20 annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, occurring randomly along active plate boundaries without short-term predictability, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline rate amid quiet seismicity, with resolution hinging on USGS significant earthquake listings; real-time global network updates continue hourly, flagging any qualifying events in high-activity zones like the Ring of Fire.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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