Persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks and threats have kept container ship transits through the Suez Canal at historically low levels in 2026, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for 2,000+ transits in H1. January saw just 150 passages—the weakest in a decade—per Alphaliner data, with Q1 totals under 500 amid carriers' reluctance to resume Asia-Europe routes via Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opting for Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite added transit times and costs. March escalations, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel, further deterred traffic, leaving May-June insufficient for catch-up even at accelerated paces. A sustained Yemen ceasefire and weeks without incidents could prompt partial returns, but structural caution among liners remains a barrier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
$136,596 Vol.
$136,596 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$136,596 Vol.
$136,596 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks and threats have kept container ship transits through the Suez Canal at historically low levels in 2026, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for 2,000+ transits in H1. January saw just 150 passages—the weakest in a decade—per Alphaliner data, with Q1 totals under 500 amid carriers' reluctance to resume Asia-Europe routes via Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opting for Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite added transit times and costs. March escalations, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel, further deterred traffic, leaving May-June insufficient for catch-up even at accelerated paces. A sustained Yemen ceasefire and weeks without incidents could prompt partial returns, but structural caution among liners remains a barrier.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$136,596End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks and threats have kept container ship transits through the Suez Canal at historically low levels in 2026, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for 2,000+ transits in H1. January saw just 150 passages—the weakest in a decade—per Alphaliner data, with Q1 totals under 500 amid carriers' reluctance to resume Asia-Europe routes via Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opting for Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite added transit times and costs. March escalations, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel, further deterred traffic, leaving May-June insufficient for catch-up even at accelerated paces. A sustained Yemen ceasefire and weeks without incidents could prompt partial returns, but structural caution among liners remains a barrier.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Volume
$136,596End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks and threats have kept container ship transits through the Suez Canal at historically low levels in 2026, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for 2,000+ transits in H1. January saw just 150 passages—the weakest in a decade—per Alphaliner data, with Q1 totals under 500 amid carriers' reluctance to resume Asia-Europe routes via Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opting for Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite added transit times and costs. March escalations, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel, further deterred traffic, leaving May-June insufficient for catch-up even at accelerated paces. A sustained Yemen ceasefire and weeks without incidents could prompt partial returns, but structural caution among liners remains a barrier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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