**Persistent Red Sea security risks and carrier caution have kept container ship transits through the Suez Canal at historically low levels throughout H1 2026.** Most major lines continue routing Asia-Europe and related services around the Cape of Good Hope, limiting volumes despite a October 2025 ceasefire and the absence of recent Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Data through early June show container traffic remaining roughly 60% below pre-crisis benchmarks, with January alone recording only about 150 container transits and subsequent months showing similarly subdued weekly figures in the low teens or below. Limited early movers, notably CMA CGM with roughly 104 vessel transits from January to May, have not triggered a broad recovery; other carriers have conducted only test or selective sailings amid ongoing risk assessments and network adjustments. With H1 2026 nearly complete and current daily container volumes far short of the pace needed to approach 2,000 transits, traders assign overwhelming probability to the “No” outcome. Realistic factors that could still shift the tally include accelerated resumption by additional carriers in the final weeks of June or unexpected improvements in regional security that prompt immediate rerouting decisions, though the short remaining window and entrenched operational patterns make material changes unlikely.