Recent opinion polls show the centre-left Red-Green opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a consistent lead with combined support near 52–55 percent, while the Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats) aggregate around 42–46 percent. This gap has persisted through 2025 and into mid-2026, with the Social Democrats polling in the low-to-mid 30s and smaller Tidö partners, especially the Liberals, hovering near or below the 4 percent parliamentary threshold. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the Tidö grouping fewer than the 175 seats required for a Riksdag majority ahead of the September 13 election. The resulting trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the “No” outcome a 68 percent implied probability, reflecting the sustained polling differential and limited recent catalysts capable of reversing bloc momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
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14 sep 2026
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14 sep 2026
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls show the centre-left Red-Green opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a consistent lead with combined support near 52–55 percent, while the Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats) aggregate around 42–46 percent. This gap has persisted through 2025 and into mid-2026, with the Social Democrats polling in the low-to-mid 30s and smaller Tidö partners, especially the Liberals, hovering near or below the 4 percent parliamentary threshold. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the Tidö grouping fewer than the 175 seats required for a Riksdag majority ahead of the September 13 election. The resulting trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the “No” outcome a 68 percent implied probability, reflecting the sustained polling differential and limited recent catalysts capable of reversing bloc momentum.
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Mercado abierto: Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volumen
$19Fecha de finalización
14 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls show the centre-left Red-Green opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a consistent lead with combined support near 52–55 percent, while the Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats) aggregate around 42–46 percent. This gap has persisted through 2025 and into mid-2026, with the Social Democrats polling in the low-to-mid 30s and smaller Tidö partners, especially the Liberals, hovering near or below the 4 percent parliamentary threshold. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the Tidö grouping fewer than the 175 seats required for a Riksdag majority ahead of the September 13 election. The resulting trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the “No” outcome a 68 percent implied probability, reflecting the sustained polling differential and limited recent catalysts capable of reversing bloc momentum.
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volumen
$19Fecha de finalización
14 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls show the centre-left Red-Green opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a consistent lead with combined support near 52–55 percent, while the Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats) aggregate around 42–46 percent. This gap has persisted through 2025 and into mid-2026, with the Social Democrats polling in the low-to-mid 30s and smaller Tidö partners, especially the Liberals, hovering near or below the 4 percent parliamentary threshold. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the Tidö grouping fewer than the 175 seats required for a Riksdag majority ahead of the September 13 election. The resulting trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the “No” outcome a 68 percent implied probability, reflecting the sustained polling differential and limited recent catalysts capable of reversing bloc momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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