Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global hottest-month record—likely July 2023 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by forecasts of a strong El Niño emerging in May-July with 61% NOAA probability, potentially adding up to 0.2°C to baseline warmth and persisting through year-end. Early 2026 months ranked highly (e.g., March tied for second-warmest globally, first quarter third overall), amid accelerated warming at 0.27°C per decade since 1996, per Copernicus analyses. While La Niña faded without cooling as expected, model consensus favors record heat in boreal summer, though ENSO uncertainty and marine heat uptake could temper extremes; watch April data and next NOAA ENSO update.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$134,292 Vol.
$134,292 Vol.
10 ene 2027
Sí
$134,292 Vol.
$134,292 Vol.
10 ene 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global hottest-month record—likely July 2023 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by forecasts of a strong El Niño emerging in May-July with 61% NOAA probability, potentially adding up to 0.2°C to baseline warmth and persisting through year-end. Early 2026 months ranked highly (e.g., March tied for second-warmest globally, first quarter third overall), amid accelerated warming at 0.27°C per decade since 1996, per Copernicus analyses. While La Niña faded without cooling as expected, model consensus favors record heat in boreal summer, though ENSO uncertainty and marine heat uptake could temper extremes; watch April data and next NOAA ENSO update.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$134,292Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global hottest-month record—likely July 2023 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by forecasts of a strong El Niño emerging in May-July with 61% NOAA probability, potentially adding up to 0.2°C to baseline warmth and persisting through year-end. Early 2026 months ranked highly (e.g., March tied for second-warmest globally, first quarter third overall), amid accelerated warming at 0.27°C per decade since 1996, per Copernicus analyses. While La Niña faded without cooling as expected, model consensus favors record heat in boreal summer, though ENSO uncertainty and marine heat uptake could temper extremes; watch April data and next NOAA ENSO update.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$134,292Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global hottest-month record—likely July 2023 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by forecasts of a strong El Niño emerging in May-July with 61% NOAA probability, potentially adding up to 0.2°C to baseline warmth and persisting through year-end. Early 2026 months ranked highly (e.g., March tied for second-warmest globally, first quarter third overall), amid accelerated warming at 0.27°C per decade since 1996, per Copernicus analyses. While La Niña faded without cooling as expected, model consensus favors record heat in boreal summer, though ENSO uncertainty and marine heat uptake could temper extremes; watch April data and next NOAA ENSO update.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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