Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.3% for no Atlantic hurricane by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of a quiet basin as of April 30, with no tropical cyclones or disturbances and outlook issuance paused until May 15 absent threats. Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane formation across most of the tropical Atlantic, compounded by unfavorable wind shear and typical pre-season patterns. Historically, only a handful of Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 records began, underscoring the low baseline probability. Realistic shifts could arise from an anomalous early tropical wave undergoing rapid intensification amid unexpectedly warming SSTs, though NHC advisories and model ensembles show no such signals; watch for May 15 updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$46,272 Vol.
$46,272 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$46,272 Vol.
$46,272 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.3% for no Atlantic hurricane by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of a quiet basin as of April 30, with no tropical cyclones or disturbances and outlook issuance paused until May 15 absent threats. Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane formation across most of the tropical Atlantic, compounded by unfavorable wind shear and typical pre-season patterns. Historically, only a handful of Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 records began, underscoring the low baseline probability. Realistic shifts could arise from an anomalous early tropical wave undergoing rapid intensification amid unexpectedly warming SSTs, though NHC advisories and model ensembles show no such signals; watch for May 15 updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$46,272Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.3% for no Atlantic hurricane by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of a quiet basin as of April 30, with no tropical cyclones or disturbances and outlook issuance paused until May 15 absent threats. Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane formation across most of the tropical Atlantic, compounded by unfavorable wind shear and typical pre-season patterns. Historically, only a handful of Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 records began, underscoring the low baseline probability. Realistic shifts could arise from an anomalous early tropical wave undergoing rapid intensification amid unexpectedly warming SSTs, though NHC advisories and model ensembles show no such signals; watch for May 15 updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volumen
$46,272Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.3% for no Atlantic hurricane by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of a quiet basin as of April 30, with no tropical cyclones or disturbances and outlook issuance paused until May 15 absent threats. Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane formation across most of the tropical Atlantic, compounded by unfavorable wind shear and typical pre-season patterns. Historically, only a handful of Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 records began, underscoring the low baseline probability. Realistic shifts could arise from an anomalous early tropical wave undergoing rapid intensification amid unexpectedly warming SSTs, though NHC advisories and model ensembles show no such signals; watch for May 15 updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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