Polls show Netanyahu’s Likud party trailing or neck-and-neck with the new opposition alliance, reflecting market uncertainty about his chances in the 2026 election

Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 42%2%

Polls show Netanyahu’s Likud party trailing or neck-and-neck with the new opposition alliance, reflecting market uncertainty about his chances in the 2026 election

During a meeting with UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Katz threatens “catastrophic consequences” if Hezbollah continues defiance, linking his stance to regional security and

Israel Katz dips to 0%1%

During a meeting with UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Katz threatens “catastrophic consequences” if Hezbollah continues defiance, linking his stance to regional security and further cementing his hard‑line reputation

Polls after Bennett-Lapid merger show opposition bloc still short of majority without Arab parties

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

New polls indicated the merged party could not secure a majority alone, limiting Lapid’s chances to become PM.

Analysts compare the opposition merger to successful center-right coalitions elsewhere, emphasizing the threat to Netanyahu’s re-election prospects amid his health disclosure and

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 44%2%

Analysts compare the opposition merger to successful center-right coalitions elsewhere, emphasizing the threat to Netanyahu’s re-election prospects amid his health disclosure and opposition unity

Polls show the new "Together" party would win 27 seats, slightly fewer than the combined previous totals, indicating mixed market reactions to the alliance

Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%12%

Polls show the new "Together" party would win 27 seats, slightly fewer than the combined previous totals, indicating mixed market reactions to the alliance

Eizenkot warns that the proposed Bennett‑Lapid bloc may struggle to attract right‑wing voters, casting doubt on the alliance’s viability and dampening his perceived chances

Gadi Eizenkot drops to 10%11%

Eizenkot warns that the proposed Bennett‑Lapid bloc may struggle to attract right‑wing voters, casting doubt on the alliance’s viability and dampening his perceived chances

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a united run under the joint party "Together," with Bennett as leader, aiming to consolidate opposition against Netanyahu

Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%12%

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a united run under the joint party "Together," with Bennett as leader, aiming to consolidate opposition against Netanyahu

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into “Together” to challenge Netanyahu

Yair Lapid dips to 2%2%

The announcement of the Bennett-Lapid joint party aimed to consolidate opposition but did not significantly boost Lapid’s individual odds, as the alliance was led by Bennett.

Netanyahu responds to the Bennett-Lapid merger by highlighting their previous short-lived coalition and warning of political instability, attempting to rally his base

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 42%3%

Netanyahu responds to the Bennett-Lapid merger by highlighting their previous short-lived coalition and warning of political instability, attempting to rally his base

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into a unified opposition bloc to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election,

Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 39%5%

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into a unified opposition bloc to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election, significantly increasing competitive pressure

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint electoral alliance named "Together," consolidating centrist opposition forces and sidelining Lieberman

Avigdor Lieberman dips to 1%1%

The alliance reduced Lieberman’s chances by uniting major opposition factions without him, reinforcing his marginal position.

Netanyahu publicly reveals successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer, addressing health rumors and potential election impact

Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%5%

Netanyahu publicly reveals successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer, addressing health rumors and potential election impact

Katz publicly states Israel is “prepared to renew the war against Iran” and is waiting for a U.S.

Israel Katz dips to 1%1%

green light, repeating the same message across several outlets (Jerusalem Post, Pravda USA, Naharnet)

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister

Israel Katz rises to 2%1%

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister image

Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visit IDF troops in southern Lebanon, announcing “Operation Silver Plow” to disarm Hezbollah, raising his security‑focused profile

Israel Katz rises to 1%1%

Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visit IDF troops in southern Lebanon, announcing “Operation Silver Plow” to disarm Hezbollah, raising his security‑focused profile

Israel Katz warns Iran that Israel is “awaiting a green light” from the United States before renewing war operations, emphasizing “different and deadly” attacks

Israel Katz dips to 0%3%

Israel Katz warns Iran that Israel is “awaiting a green light” from the United States before renewing war operations, emphasizing “different and deadly” attacks

Bennett officially registers his new party "Bennett 2026," formalizing his political platform for the upcoming election

Naftali Bennett rises to 28%1%

Bennett officially registers his new party "Bennett 2026," formalizing his political platform for the upcoming election

Israeli parliament approves the 2026 state budget, averting early elections and temporarily stabilizing Netanyahu’s government ahead of the scheduled October election

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%2%

Israeli parliament approves the 2026 state budget, averting early elections and temporarily stabilizing Netanyahu’s government ahead of the scheduled October election

Netanyahu publicly refutes rumors of death and interim PM appointment of Yariv Levin amid viral misinformation

Netanyahu directly addressed and dismissed false reports of his death and Levin’s appointment as interim PM, quashing speculation and stabilizing Levin’s market.

Justice Minister Yariv Levin recuses himself from handling Netanyahu’s pardon request to avoid conflict of interest

Levin delegated the handling of Netanyahu’s pardon request to another minister, demonstrating his continued ministerial role but no advancement toward premiership.

Yair Lapid publicly offers to drop to third place on a joint “Together” list to accommodate Eizenkot’s Yashar!

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 21%5%

party, suggesting a possible coalition boost

Israel and the U.S. conduct joint military actions against Iran, boosting Netanyahu’s image as a strong leader in regional security, reflected in a peak in market confidence

Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 62%7%

Israel and the U.S. conduct joint military actions against Iran, boosting Netanyahu’s image as a strong leader in regional security, reflected in a peak in market confidence

Bennett rules out serving in a government led by Netanyahu and confirms no inclusion of Arab parties, clarifying his political stance ahead of elections

Naftali Bennett jumps to 34%5%

Bennett rules out serving in a government led by Netanyahu and confirms no inclusion of Arab parties, clarifying his political stance ahead of elections

Eizenkot appears beside Bennett at a high‑visibility Jerusalem march demanding conscription of ultra‑Orthodox Jews, raising his profile among right‑wing voters

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 16%6%

Eizenkot appears beside Bennett at a high‑visibility Jerusalem march demanding conscription of ultra‑Orthodox Jews, raising his profile among right‑wing voters

Market low point for Lapid at 0%, reflecting poor polling and political fragmentation

Yair Lapid dips to 0%2%

Lapid’s individual chances hit a nadir amid fragmented opposition and lack of clear coalition prospects.

Draft of judicial reform compromise presented by Yariv Levin and Gideon Sa’ar

Levin presented a judicial reform draft as a compromise, maintaining his influence in government policy but not advancing his position toward prime ministership. This event did not affect his market chances significantly.

Lieberman calls for a state inquiry into the government's failings before the October 7 attacks, criticizing Netanyahu's leadership

Avigdor Lieberman dips to 2%1%

His vocal criticism of Netanyahu and calls for accountability highlighted his opposition stance but did not translate into increased market confidence in his premiership prospects.

Polls show Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party polling low, under 10 seats, with no clear path to PM

Yair Lapid dips to 4%1%

Persistent low polling for Lapid’s party indicated weakening individual prospects, contributing to a decline in market confidence.

Netanyahu faces criticism and political pressure amid calls for a national commission of inquiry into the October 7 security failure, which he opposes, raising concerns about his

Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 42%10%

Netanyahu faces criticism and political pressure amid calls for a national commission of inquiry into the October 7 security failure, which he opposes, raising concerns about his political stability

Bennett holds a campaign event emphasizing female representation, highlighting six of nine co-founders of his party are women, aiming to broaden appeal

Naftali Bennett dips to 34%2%

Bennett holds a campaign event emphasizing female representation, highlighting six of nine co-founders of his party are women, aiming to broaden appeal

Israeli cabinet appoints Yariv Levin to lead multiple ministries after ultra-Orthodox parties exit coalition

Levin was appointed to head the Labor, Religious Services, and Jerusalem ministries, increasing his ministerial responsibilities but not signaling a move toward premiership. This reinforced his role as a senior minister rather than a prime ministerial candidate.

Viral social media rumors falsely claim Yariv Levin appointed interim Prime Minister replacing Netanyahu

Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%

A widely shared Facebook post and other social media claims alleged that Yariv Levin had been named interim Prime Minister, causing initial market optimism. However, official sources and Netanyahu himself denied these claims, confirming Netanyahu remained in office and Levin was not appointed interim PM.

Bennett adds Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to his campaign team, signaling a professional and strategic approach to the election campaign

Naftali Bennett rises to 36%1%

Bennett adds Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to his campaign team, signaling a professional and strategic approach to the election campaign

Bennett accidentally reveals identity of a Shin Bet bodyguard in a social media post, causing minor controversy and media attention

Naftali Bennett rises to 35%2%

Bennett accidentally reveals identity of a Shin Bet bodyguard in a social media post, causing minor controversy and media attention

Benjamin Netanyahu confirms he will run for re-election in the 2026 legislative elections, asserting confidence in victory despite diplomatic tensions with the U.S.

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 51%2%

and ongoing hostage negotiations with Hamas

Avigdor Lieberman sends letter to Yair Lapid proposing a meeting with Benny Gantz and Naftali Bennett to discuss potential government formation after the next election

Avigdor Lieberman plunges to 1%48%

This letter indicated Lieberman's attempt to position himself as a key player in post-election coalition talks, but the market quickly discounted his chances, reflecting skepticism about his ability to lead.

Yair Lapid wins Yesh Atid leadership primary narrowly beating Ram Ben-Barak

Lapid's narrow victory in the party leadership primary solidified his position as Yesh Atid leader, initially supporting a strong market probability.

Naftali Bennett announces intention to run for prime minister in the upcoming election during a speech at Yeshiva University, marking his formal re-entry into electoral politics

Naftali Bennett plunges to 33%16%

Naftali Bennett announces intention to run for prime minister in the upcoming election during a speech at Yeshiva University, marking his formal re-entry into electoral politics

Eizenkot rejects Naftali Bennett’s offer to be “number two” in a joint list, insisting on an independent bid

Gadi Eizenkot rises to 10%4%

Eizenkot rejects Naftali Bennett’s offer to be “number two” in a joint list, insisting on an independent bid

Eizenkot launches the new centrist Yashar!

Gadi Eizenkot rises to 6%1%

party, positioning himself as a fresh contender for prime minister

Eizenkot pledges to place a Druze candidate in a realistic spot on Yashar!’s election list during a tour of Druze towns, signalling outreach to minority voters

Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%4%

Eizenkot pledges to place a Druze candidate in a realistic spot on Yashar!’s election list during a tour of Druze towns, signalling outreach to minority voters

Eizenkot’s Knesset resignation is formally submitted;

Gadi Eizenkot dips to 1%1%

his seat is filled by Eitan Ginzburg

Gadi Eizenkot announces he will resign from the Knesset and quit National Unity over leadership‑election disputes

Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%

Gadi Eizenkot announces he will resign from the Knesset and quit National Unity over leadership‑election disputes