Stalled US-Iran diplomacy has driven trader consensus toward a 71.5% implied probability of no nuclear deal by June 30, as recent proposals prioritize ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz access over comprehensive nuclear restrictions. On April 28, the Trump administration rejected Iran's latest offer to reopen the strait while postponing nuclear talks, citing unresolved enrichment ambitions amid Tehran's insistence on its right to uranium enrichment and full sanctions relief. Earlier Islamabad talks collapsed on April 12 without breakthroughs on de-escalation or a 20-year US-demanded enrichment pause, compounded by fresh US sanctions on Iran's missile programs. With core disputes persisting and focus shifted to immediate tensions, traders see significant barriers to agreement within the two-month window, though backchannel efforts via Oman or Pakistan could shift dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de junio?
¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$1,467,264 Vol.
$1,467,264 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,467,264 Vol.
$1,467,264 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Stalled US-Iran diplomacy has driven trader consensus toward a 71.5% implied probability of no nuclear deal by June 30, as recent proposals prioritize ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz access over comprehensive nuclear restrictions. On April 28, the Trump administration rejected Iran's latest offer to reopen the strait while postponing nuclear talks, citing unresolved enrichment ambitions amid Tehran's insistence on its right to uranium enrichment and full sanctions relief. Earlier Islamabad talks collapsed on April 12 without breakthroughs on de-escalation or a 20-year US-demanded enrichment pause, compounded by fresh US sanctions on Iran's missile programs. With core disputes persisting and focus shifted to immediate tensions, traders see significant barriers to agreement within the two-month window, though backchannel efforts via Oman or Pakistan could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$1,467,264Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Stalled US-Iran diplomacy has driven trader consensus toward a 71.5% implied probability of no nuclear deal by June 30, as recent proposals prioritize ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz access over comprehensive nuclear restrictions. On April 28, the Trump administration rejected Iran's latest offer to reopen the strait while postponing nuclear talks, citing unresolved enrichment ambitions amid Tehran's insistence on its right to uranium enrichment and full sanctions relief. Earlier Islamabad talks collapsed on April 12 without breakthroughs on de-escalation or a 20-year US-demanded enrichment pause, compounded by fresh US sanctions on Iran's missile programs. With core disputes persisting and focus shifted to immediate tensions, traders see significant barriers to agreement within the two-month window, though backchannel efforts via Oman or Pakistan could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$1,467,264Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran diplomacy has driven trader consensus toward a 71.5% implied probability of no nuclear deal by June 30, as recent proposals prioritize ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz access over comprehensive nuclear restrictions. On April 28, the Trump administration rejected Iran's latest offer to reopen the strait while postponing nuclear talks, citing unresolved enrichment ambitions amid Tehran's insistence on its right to uranium enrichment and full sanctions relief. Earlier Islamabad talks collapsed on April 12 without breakthroughs on de-escalation or a 20-year US-demanded enrichment pause, compounded by fresh US sanctions on Iran's missile programs. With core disputes persisting and focus shifted to immediate tensions, traders see significant barriers to agreement within the two-month window, though backchannel efforts via Oman or Pakistan could shift dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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