Trader consensus favors "No" at 68% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions under Vienna Convention norms despite ongoing bilateral frictions. No formal expulsions have occurred in 2026, even amid March tensions when South Africa summoned new Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks dismissing a local court ruling on anti-white farmer chants, prompting opposition calls for him to be declared persona non grata—yet engagement continued via meetings with figures like Thabo Mbeki. Broader U.S. foreign policy shifts, including Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors, have strained ties in Africa and elsewhere but avoided reciprocal expulsions, underscoring host nations' restraint amid economic and alliance pressures. Watch persistent hotspots like Venezuela or Russia for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,605 Vol.
$14,605 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$14,605 Vol.
$14,605 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 68% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions under Vienna Convention norms despite ongoing bilateral frictions. No formal expulsions have occurred in 2026, even amid March tensions when South Africa summoned new Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks dismissing a local court ruling on anti-white farmer chants, prompting opposition calls for him to be declared persona non grata—yet engagement continued via meetings with figures like Thabo Mbeki. Broader U.S. foreign policy shifts, including Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors, have strained ties in Africa and elsewhere but avoided reciprocal expulsions, underscoring host nations' restraint amid economic and alliance pressures. Watch persistent hotspots like Venezuela or Russia for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$14,605Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 68% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions under Vienna Convention norms despite ongoing bilateral frictions. No formal expulsions have occurred in 2026, even amid March tensions when South Africa summoned new Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks dismissing a local court ruling on anti-white farmer chants, prompting opposition calls for him to be declared persona non grata—yet engagement continued via meetings with figures like Thabo Mbeki. Broader U.S. foreign policy shifts, including Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors, have strained ties in Africa and elsewhere but avoided reciprocal expulsions, underscoring host nations' restraint amid economic and alliance pressures. Watch persistent hotspots like Venezuela or Russia for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$14,605Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 68% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions under Vienna Convention norms despite ongoing bilateral frictions. No formal expulsions have occurred in 2026, even amid March tensions when South Africa summoned new Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks dismissing a local court ruling on anti-white farmer chants, prompting opposition calls for him to be declared persona non grata—yet engagement continued via meetings with figures like Thabo Mbeki. Broader U.S. foreign policy shifts, including Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors, have strained ties in Africa and elsewhere but avoided reciprocal expulsions, underscoring host nations' restraint amid economic and alliance pressures. Watch persistent hotspots like Venezuela or Russia for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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