Iran's recent proposal to the US, delivered via Pakistan around April 27, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while explicitly postponing nuclear negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a timely agreement, pricing "No" at 82.5% implied probability. IAEA reports from February and March highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed nuclear sites post-June 2025 conflict and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified halt or public pledge to end enrichment. Despite President Trump's April 17 claim of Iranian concessions on uranium handover, Tehran has excluded nuclear curbs from ceasefire talks, emphasizing a multi-year suspension at most. With the May 31 deadline approaching amid diplomatic impasse, traders anticipate no formal commitment, reflecting entrenched positions and verification hurdles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
NUEVO
$42,054 Vol.
NUEVO
$42,054 Vol.
31 may 2026
NUEVO
$42,054 Vol.
NUEVO
$42,054 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent proposal to the US, delivered via Pakistan around April 27, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while explicitly postponing nuclear negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a timely agreement, pricing "No" at 82.5% implied probability. IAEA reports from February and March highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed nuclear sites post-June 2025 conflict and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified halt or public pledge to end enrichment. Despite President Trump's April 17 claim of Iranian concessions on uranium handover, Tehran has excluded nuclear curbs from ceasefire talks, emphasizing a multi-year suspension at most. With the May 31 deadline approaching amid diplomatic impasse, traders anticipate no formal commitment, reflecting entrenched positions and verification hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volumen
$42,054Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent proposal to the US, delivered via Pakistan around April 27, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while explicitly postponing nuclear negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a timely agreement, pricing "No" at 82.5% implied probability. IAEA reports from February and March highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed nuclear sites post-June 2025 conflict and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified halt or public pledge to end enrichment. Despite President Trump's April 17 claim of Iranian concessions on uranium handover, Tehran has excluded nuclear curbs from ceasefire talks, emphasizing a multi-year suspension at most. With the May 31 deadline approaching amid diplomatic impasse, traders anticipate no formal commitment, reflecting entrenched positions and verification hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$42,091Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's recent proposal to the US, delivered via Pakistan around April 27, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while explicitly postponing nuclear negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a timely agreement, pricing "No" at 82.5% implied probability. IAEA reports from February and March highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed nuclear sites post-June 2025 conflict and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified halt or public pledge to end enrichment. Despite President Trump's April 17 claim of Iranian concessions on uranium handover, Tehran has excluded nuclear curbs from ceasefire talks, emphasizing a multi-year suspension at most. With the May 31 deadline approaching amid diplomatic impasse, traders anticipate no formal commitment, reflecting entrenched positions and verification hurdles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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