Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% "No" that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30, 2026, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran rejects halting its program—a sovereign right it asserts post-2018 JCPOA withdrawal—and offers at most a five-year pause against Washington's 20-year demand. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's ongoing stockpile of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with no access granted, while Tehran prioritizes separate Strait of Hormuz diplomacy over nuclear concessions, as noted in April 27 proposals. President Trump's April 17 claim of an agreement to hand over stocks has not materialized into a formal end to enrichment. Only an unforeseen last-minute announcement or breakthrough before midnight ET could shift resolution, though historical deadlocks make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de abril?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de abril?
Sí
$1,860,677 Vol.
$1,860,677 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$1,860,677 Vol.
$1,860,677 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% "No" that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30, 2026, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran rejects halting its program—a sovereign right it asserts post-2018 JCPOA withdrawal—and offers at most a five-year pause against Washington's 20-year demand. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's ongoing stockpile of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with no access granted, while Tehran prioritizes separate Strait of Hormuz diplomacy over nuclear concessions, as noted in April 27 proposals. President Trump's April 17 claim of an agreement to hand over stocks has not materialized into a formal end to enrichment. Only an unforeseen last-minute announcement or breakthrough before midnight ET could shift resolution, though historical deadlocks make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volumen
$1,860,677Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% "No" that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30, 2026, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran rejects halting its program—a sovereign right it asserts post-2018 JCPOA withdrawal—and offers at most a five-year pause against Washington's 20-year demand. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's ongoing stockpile of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with no access granted, while Tehran prioritizes separate Strait of Hormuz diplomacy over nuclear concessions, as noted in April 27 proposals. President Trump's April 17 claim of an agreement to hand over stocks has not materialized into a formal end to enrichment. Only an unforeseen last-minute announcement or breakthrough before midnight ET could shift resolution, though historical deadlocks make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,860,677Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% "No" that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30, 2026, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran rejects halting its program—a sovereign right it asserts post-2018 JCPOA withdrawal—and offers at most a five-year pause against Washington's 20-year demand. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's ongoing stockpile of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with no access granted, while Tehran prioritizes separate Strait of Hormuz diplomacy over nuclear concessions, as noted in April 27 proposals. President Trump's April 17 claim of an agreement to hand over stocks has not materialized into a formal end to enrichment. Only an unforeseen last-minute announcement or breakthrough before midnight ET could shift resolution, though historical deadlocks make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes