Recent national polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026 Riksdag election shows the Swedish Social Democratic Party maintaining a clear lead at 32–34 percent, while the Moderate Party and Sweden Democrats trail closely in the high teens to low twenties. This positioning leaves the contest for second place between those two parties, elevating the probability that the narrower of the two finishes third. The Citizens’ Coalition registers modest support in surveys but retains an outside chance among smaller parties. No major shifts in alliances, turnout patterns, or late-campaign events have altered these standings in recent weeks, leaving trader consensus aligned with the stable polling gap between the leading contenders.