Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 22% implied probability in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 11%, driven by Vance's role as Republican heir apparent post-Trump's term limits, recent big-donor fundraising outreach reported in April, and favorable polls like UMass Lowell's late-March survey showing him topping Newsom 33%-30%. Newsom's visibility as a leading Democrat in an open primary field keeps pace amid mixed head-to-head polling. The contest stays tight in this early shadow primary phase, with fragmented fields on both sides; 2026 midterms outcomes, administration achievements or missteps like foreign policy tests, and early endorsements could widen gaps ahead of formal campaigning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoThe Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a slight
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