Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's position appears stable amid trader consensus implying a 58% chance he remains in office through 2026, driven by his recent diplomatic engagements, including welcoming a U.S.-announced 10-day Israel ceasefire on April 16 and meetings with French President Macron to bolster negotiations. Despite Hezbollah tensions—where Salam asserts the state's monopoly on talks and arms without seeking confrontation—protests demanding his resignation have not escalated into a no-confidence vote or coalition collapse. Ongoing Israeli strikes in south Lebanon and humanitarian appeals underscore fragility, but no official resignation signals or parliamentary challenges have emerged in the past month, reflecting his one-year government's incremental progress on sovereignty amid war. Upcoming Israel talks could further solidify or test his leadership.