Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) planetary defense systems detecting no impact threats amid comprehensive NEO cataloging. Recent safe flybys—including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD at 156,000 miles on April 9, bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and ongoing approaches like 2026 HY3 today—demonstrate robust surveillance, while Q1 2026's record fireball reports yielded no qualifying events despite heightened detections. DART mission's confirmed orbital deflection success in March bolsters deflection capabilities, though undetected sporadic meteors maintain slim residual risk; watch NASA's monthly NEO updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
Sí
$149,989 Vol.
$149,989 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$149,989 Vol.
$149,989 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) planetary defense systems detecting no impact threats amid comprehensive NEO cataloging. Recent safe flybys—including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD at 156,000 miles on April 9, bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and ongoing approaches like 2026 HY3 today—demonstrate robust surveillance, while Q1 2026's record fireball reports yielded no qualifying events despite heightened detections. DART mission's confirmed orbital deflection success in March bolsters deflection capabilities, though undetected sporadic meteors maintain slim residual risk; watch NASA's monthly NEO updates for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$149,989Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) planetary defense systems detecting no impact threats amid comprehensive NEO cataloging. Recent safe flybys—including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD at 156,000 miles on April 9, bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and ongoing approaches like 2026 HY3 today—demonstrate robust surveillance, while Q1 2026's record fireball reports yielded no qualifying events despite heightened detections. DART mission's confirmed orbital deflection success in March bolsters deflection capabilities, though undetected sporadic meteors maintain slim residual risk; watch NASA's monthly NEO updates for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$149,989Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) planetary defense systems detecting no impact threats amid comprehensive NEO cataloging. Recent safe flybys—including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD at 156,000 miles on April 9, bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and ongoing approaches like 2026 HY3 today—demonstrate robust surveillance, while Q1 2026's record fireball reports yielded no qualifying events despite heightened detections. DART mission's confirmed orbital deflection success in March bolsters deflection capabilities, though undetected sporadic meteors maintain slim residual risk; watch NASA's monthly NEO updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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