Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite vigilant monitoring by USGS, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, NASA's CNEOS fireball network, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Historical baselines underscore rarity: only five US Cat5 landfalls since 1851, VEI6 events decades apart (last Pinatubo 1991), M8.5+ quakes averaging once every 5-10 years (most recent Kamchatka 8.8 in 2025), and 10kt+ meteors every 2-3 years with none detected this year amid a Q1 fireball uptick below threshold. With one-third of 2026 elapsed event-free, odds favor continuation amid below-average Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA and CSU citing potential El Niño suppression; watch June 1 season start, weekly USGS seismic updates, and NASA bolide reports for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
$216,017 Vol.
$216,017 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$216,017 Vol.
$216,017 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite vigilant monitoring by USGS, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, NASA's CNEOS fireball network, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Historical baselines underscore rarity: only five US Cat5 landfalls since 1851, VEI6 events decades apart (last Pinatubo 1991), M8.5+ quakes averaging once every 5-10 years (most recent Kamchatka 8.8 in 2025), and 10kt+ meteors every 2-3 years with none detected this year amid a Q1 fireball uptick below threshold. With one-third of 2026 elapsed event-free, odds favor continuation amid below-average Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA and CSU citing potential El Niño suppression; watch June 1 season start, weekly USGS seismic updates, and NASA bolide reports for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$216,017Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite vigilant monitoring by USGS, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, NASA's CNEOS fireball network, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Historical baselines underscore rarity: only five US Cat5 landfalls since 1851, VEI6 events decades apart (last Pinatubo 1991), M8.5+ quakes averaging once every 5-10 years (most recent Kamchatka 8.8 in 2025), and 10kt+ meteors every 2-3 years with none detected this year amid a Q1 fireball uptick below threshold. With one-third of 2026 elapsed event-free, odds favor continuation amid below-average Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA and CSU citing potential El Niño suppression; watch June 1 season start, weekly USGS seismic updates, and NASA bolide reports for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$216,017Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, 10kt+ meteor airburst, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake—reflecting the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite vigilant monitoring by USGS, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, NASA's CNEOS fireball network, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Historical baselines underscore rarity: only five US Cat5 landfalls since 1851, VEI6 events decades apart (last Pinatubo 1991), M8.5+ quakes averaging once every 5-10 years (most recent Kamchatka 8.8 in 2025), and 10kt+ meteors every 2-3 years with none detected this year amid a Q1 fireball uptick below threshold. With one-third of 2026 elapsed event-free, odds favor continuation amid below-average Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA and CSU citing potential El Niño suppression; watch June 1 season start, weekly USGS seismic updates, and NASA bolide reports for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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