NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteoro de 1 megatón en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteoro de 1 megatón en 2026?
Sí
$104,815 Vol.
$104,815 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$104,815 Vol.
$104,815 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$104,815Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$104,815Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes