NOAA’s May forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season—driven by emerging El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation—sets the dominant backdrop for the 73% market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3+) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with Colorado State University assigning only a 24% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast. No tropical cyclones are active as of mid-June, and historical data show Category 4 strikes remain infrequent even in average years. Peak-season monitoring through September will determine whether any intensification and steering patterns overcome these suppressing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$332,024 Vol.
$332,024 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$332,024 Vol.
$332,024 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s May forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season—driven by emerging El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation—sets the dominant backdrop for the 73% market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3+) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with Colorado State University assigning only a 24% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast. No tropical cyclones are active as of mid-June, and historical data show Category 4 strikes remain infrequent even in average years. Peak-season monitoring through September will determine whether any intensification and steering patterns overcome these suppressing factors.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$332,024Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s May forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season—driven by emerging El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation—sets the dominant backdrop for the 73% market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3+) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with Colorado State University assigning only a 24% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast. No tropical cyclones are active as of mid-June, and historical data show Category 4 strikes remain infrequent even in average years. Peak-season monitoring through September will determine whether any intensification and steering patterns overcome these suppressing factors.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$332,024Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s May forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season—driven by emerging El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation—sets the dominant backdrop for the 73% market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3+) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with Colorado State University assigning only a 24% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast. No tropical cyclones are active as of mid-June, and historical data show Category 4 strikes remain infrequent even in average years. Peak-season monitoring through September will determine whether any intensification and steering patterns overcome these suppressing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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