NOAA’s May 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season—driven by emerging El Niño conditions—forecasts only 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5), well below the 1991–2020 averages. Colorado State University similarly projects reduced major-hurricane activity and explicitly lower U.S. landfall odds. Category 4 systems (130–156 mph sustained winds) represent a narrow subset of majors, and U.S. landfalls of such intensity have historically averaged well under one per year. With the season only days old and no early development observed, trader consensus at 73% for “No” reflects the limited window for a high-end storm to both intensify to Category 4 and track over the U.S. coastline before November. Updated seasonal model runs and the first NHC outlooks through summer will provide the next key data points.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$332,028 Vol.
$332,028 Vol.
Sí
$332,028 Vol.
$332,028 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s May 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season—driven by emerging El Niño conditions—forecasts only 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5), well below the 1991–2020 averages. Colorado State University similarly projects reduced major-hurricane activity and explicitly lower U.S. landfall odds. Category 4 systems (130–156 mph sustained winds) represent a narrow subset of majors, and U.S. landfalls of such intensity have historically averaged well under one per year. With the season only days old and no early development observed, trader consensus at 73% for “No” reflects the limited window for a high-end storm to both intensify to Category 4 and track over the U.S. coastline before November. Updated seasonal model runs and the first NHC outlooks through summer will provide the next key data points.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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