SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing with the SEC and detailed banker briefings on April 6 outlining a June listing targeting $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation—surpassing all historical precedents via Starlink's projected $20 billion revenue and Starship milestones. The February acquisition of xAI bolsters this positioning, integrating AI capabilities into space infrastructure, though xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger uncertainties. OpenAI and Anthropic lag due to OpenAI's CFO flagging unreadiness from slowing revenue growth and massive compute burns, with no firm timelines; upcoming catalysts include SpaceX's late-May prospectus release and June roadshow, alongside potential regulatory hurdles for mega-IPOs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSpaceX 88%
Anthropic 5.4%
OpenAI 4.0%
Databricks 1.8%
$1,790,670 Vol.
$1,790,670 Vol.
31 dic 2026
SpaceX
88%
Anthropic
5%
OpenAI
4%
Databricks
2%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Revolut
1%
Waymo
<1%
Stripe
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SpaceX 88%
Anthropic 5.4%
OpenAI 4.0%
Databricks 1.8%
$1,790,670 Vol.
$1,790,670 Vol.
31 dic 2026
SpaceX
$217,918 Vol.
88%
Anthropic
$353,958 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$328,125 Vol.
4%
Databricks
$77,296 Vol.
2%
Discord
$76,924 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$381,247 Vol.
1%
Revolut
$43,495 Vol.
1%
Waymo
$53,756 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$44,626 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$92,598 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$61,302 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$59,424 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing with the SEC and detailed banker briefings on April 6 outlining a June listing targeting $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation—surpassing all historical precedents via Starlink's projected $20 billion revenue and Starship milestones. The February acquisition of xAI bolsters this positioning, integrating AI capabilities into space infrastructure, though xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger uncertainties. OpenAI and Anthropic lag due to OpenAI's CFO flagging unreadiness from slowing revenue growth and massive compute burns, with no firm timelines; upcoming catalysts include SpaceX's late-May prospectus release and June roadshow, alongside potential regulatory hurdles for mega-IPOs.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,790,670Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing with the SEC and detailed banker briefings on April 6 outlining a June listing targeting $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation—surpassing all historical precedents via Starlink's projected $20 billion revenue and Starship milestones. The February acquisition of xAI bolsters this positioning, integrating AI capabilities into space infrastructure, though xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger uncertainties. OpenAI and Anthropic lag due to OpenAI's CFO flagging unreadiness from slowing revenue growth and massive compute burns, with no firm timelines; upcoming catalysts include SpaceX's late-May prospectus release and June roadshow, alongside potential regulatory hurdles for mega-IPOs.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,790,670Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing with the SEC and detailed banker briefings on April 6 outlining a June listing targeting $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion-plus valuation—surpassing all historical precedents via Starlink's projected $20 billion revenue and Starship milestones. The February acquisition of xAI bolsters this positioning, integrating AI capabilities into space infrastructure, though xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger uncertainties. OpenAI and Anthropic lag due to OpenAI's CFO flagging unreadiness from slowing revenue growth and massive compute burns, with no firm timelines; upcoming catalysts include SpaceX's late-May prospectus release and June roadshow, alongside potential regulatory hurdles for mega-IPOs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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