Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events—only five verified globally since 1900 (USGS records), with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1 rupture. Current USGS seismic monitoring detects no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent rupture on key subduction zones like Cascadia (last major event 1700), Nankai Trough, or Chile-Peru. April 2026's M7.4 off northern Japan, a subduction quake, lacked escalation to full megathrust failure, while recent Cascadia studies emphasize long-term stress buildup without short-term triggers. Realistic challenges include sudden cascade ruptures on locked faults, though annual global odds hover below 1-3% per theoretical models, highlighting seismic forecasting limits.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$181,063 Vol.
$181,063 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$181,063 Vol.
$181,063 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events—only five verified globally since 1900 (USGS records), with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1 rupture. Current USGS seismic monitoring detects no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent rupture on key subduction zones like Cascadia (last major event 1700), Nankai Trough, or Chile-Peru. April 2026's M7.4 off northern Japan, a subduction quake, lacked escalation to full megathrust failure, while recent Cascadia studies emphasize long-term stress buildup without short-term triggers. Realistic challenges include sudden cascade ruptures on locked faults, though annual global odds hover below 1-3% per theoretical models, highlighting seismic forecasting limits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$181,063Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events—only five verified globally since 1900 (USGS records), with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1 rupture. Current USGS seismic monitoring detects no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent rupture on key subduction zones like Cascadia (last major event 1700), Nankai Trough, or Chile-Peru. April 2026's M7.4 off northern Japan, a subduction quake, lacked escalation to full megathrust failure, while recent Cascadia studies emphasize long-term stress buildup without short-term triggers. Realistic challenges include sudden cascade ruptures on locked faults, though annual global odds hover below 1-3% per theoretical models, highlighting seismic forecasting limits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$181,063Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events—only five verified globally since 1900 (USGS records), with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1 rupture. Current USGS seismic monitoring detects no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent rupture on key subduction zones like Cascadia (last major event 1700), Nankai Trough, or Chile-Peru. April 2026's M7.4 off northern Japan, a subduction quake, lacked escalation to full megathrust failure, while recent Cascadia studies emphasize long-term stress buildup without short-term triggers. Realistic challenges include sudden cascade ruptures on locked faults, though annual global odds hover below 1-3% per theoretical models, highlighting seismic forecasting limits.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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