Trader consensus heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 83.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data: 280 reports through March—80% above the 1991–2020 average—and roughly 450–500 confirmed or preliminary through late April amid outbreaks like April 17–28 events in the Plains and Midwest. This hot pace, fueled by persistent Gulf moisture influx and strong wind shear, outstrips historical year-to-date norms of around 400 by early May, with peak months (May–June averaging 250+ each) ahead under neutral ENSO conditions that historically support average-to-above activity. Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and May convective outlooks could refine trajectories, though verification lags final tallies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
1250+ 85%
1150–1199 7.4%
1200–1249 4.9%
1050–1099 2.3%
$71,073 Vol.
$71,073 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
85%
1250+ 85%
1150–1199 7.4%
1200–1249 4.9%
1050–1099 2.3%
$71,073 Vol.
$71,073 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
$22,324 Vol.
1%
950–999
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,221 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,869 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$1,955 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,402 Vol.
7%
1200–1249
$15,069 Vol.
5%
1250+
$16,553 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 83.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data: 280 reports through March—80% above the 1991–2020 average—and roughly 450–500 confirmed or preliminary through late April amid outbreaks like April 17–28 events in the Plains and Midwest. This hot pace, fueled by persistent Gulf moisture influx and strong wind shear, outstrips historical year-to-date norms of around 400 by early May, with peak months (May–June averaging 250+ each) ahead under neutral ENSO conditions that historically support average-to-above activity. Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and May convective outlooks could refine trajectories, though verification lags final tallies.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volumen
$71,073Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 83.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data: 280 reports through March—80% above the 1991–2020 average—and roughly 450–500 confirmed or preliminary through late April amid outbreaks like April 17–28 events in the Plains and Midwest. This hot pace, fueled by persistent Gulf moisture influx and strong wind shear, outstrips historical year-to-date norms of around 400 by early May, with peak months (May–June averaging 250+ each) ahead under neutral ENSO conditions that historically support average-to-above activity. Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and May convective outlooks could refine trajectories, though verification lags final tallies.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$71,073Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 83.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data: 280 reports through March—80% above the 1991–2020 average—and roughly 450–500 confirmed or preliminary through late April amid outbreaks like April 17–28 events in the Plains and Midwest. This hot pace, fueled by persistent Gulf moisture influx and strong wind shear, outstrips historical year-to-date norms of around 400 by early May, with peak months (May–June averaging 250+ each) ahead under neutral ENSO conditions that historically support average-to-above activity. Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and May convective outlooks could refine trajectories, though verification lags final tallies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes