Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability on a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects the company's confidential S-1 filing on April 1, 2026, targeting a June roadshow and public debut at $1.75–2 trillion valuation—the largest in history—bolstered by Starlink's surging satellite constellation revenue, Falcon 9 launch dominance, and Starship's rapid reusability milestones like upgraded V3 prototypes ahead of Flight 12. Financial disclosures highlight unprecedented profitability from high-margin contracts and retail investor allocation, cementing trader consensus amid xAI synergies. Realistic challenges include SEC review delays, volatile equity markets, Starship test setbacks, or Elon Musk's pivot to Mars priorities, though skin-in-the-game bets price these risks low ahead of key analyst meetings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTítulo del ítem del grupo: 1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 3.7%
900B–1T 1.2%
<500B <1%
$3,153,689 Vol.
$3,153,689 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 500B–600B
<1%
600 mil millones–700 mil millones
<1%
700B–800B
<1%
800 mil millones–900 mil millones
<1%
900B–1T
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 1T+
94%
No IPO before 2028
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 3.7%
900B–1T 1.2%
<500B <1%
$3,153,689 Vol.
$3,153,689 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
$353,322 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 500B–600B
$283,280 Vol.
<1%
600 mil millones–700 mil millones
$244,649 Vol.
<1%
700B–800B
$279,268 Vol.
<1%
800 mil millones–900 mil millones
$448,399 Vol.
<1%
900B–1T
$400,515 Vol.
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 1T+
$574,912 Vol.
94%
No IPO before 2028
$569,343 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability on a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects the company's confidential S-1 filing on April 1, 2026, targeting a June roadshow and public debut at $1.75–2 trillion valuation—the largest in history—bolstered by Starlink's surging satellite constellation revenue, Falcon 9 launch dominance, and Starship's rapid reusability milestones like upgraded V3 prototypes ahead of Flight 12. Financial disclosures highlight unprecedented profitability from high-margin contracts and retail investor allocation, cementing trader consensus amid xAI synergies. Realistic challenges include SEC review delays, volatile equity markets, Starship test setbacks, or Elon Musk's pivot to Mars priorities, though skin-in-the-game bets price these risks low ahead of key analyst meetings.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volumen
$3,153,689Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability on a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects the company's confidential S-1 filing on April 1, 2026, targeting a June roadshow and public debut at $1.75–2 trillion valuation—the largest in history—bolstered by Starlink's surging satellite constellation revenue, Falcon 9 launch dominance, and Starship's rapid reusability milestones like upgraded V3 prototypes ahead of Flight 12. Financial disclosures highlight unprecedented profitability from high-margin contracts and retail investor allocation, cementing trader consensus amid xAI synergies. Realistic challenges include SEC review delays, volatile equity markets, Starship test setbacks, or Elon Musk's pivot to Mars priorities, though skin-in-the-game bets price these risks low ahead of key analyst meetings.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$3,153,689Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability on a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects the company's confidential S-1 filing on April 1, 2026, targeting a June roadshow and public debut at $1.75–2 trillion valuation—the largest in history—bolstered by Starlink's surging satellite constellation revenue, Falcon 9 launch dominance, and Starship's rapid reusability milestones like upgraded V3 prototypes ahead of Flight 12. Financial disclosures highlight unprecedented profitability from high-margin contracts and retail investor allocation, cementing trader consensus amid xAI synergies. Realistic challenges include SEC review delays, volatile equity markets, Starship test setbacks, or Elon Musk's pivot to Mars priorities, though skin-in-the-game bets price these risks low ahead of key analyst meetings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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