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icon for ¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?

¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?

icon for ¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?

¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?

dic 31

dic 31

25% probabilidad
Polymarket

$71,871 Vol.

25% probabilidad
Polymarket

$71,871 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice ("Avoid All Travel") has been issued as of mid-June 2026, with official CDC pages confirming zero active notices at this tier.** Current epidemiological conditions feature contained transmission for monitored pathogens, including recent Ebola Bundibugyo clusters in the DRC and Uganda that triggered only Level 3 notices in May due to limited case counts and low assessed U.S. importation risk. Domestic surveillance shows COVID-19 infections declining or stable in most states, measles outbreaks remaining regionally managed, and foodborne incidents like listeria tied to specific products without broader escalation. Level 4 criteria require extreme health risks where no effective precautions exist, a threshold not met by ongoing dengue, polio, or viral monitoring. Historical analogs, such as peak COVID waves, contrast with today’s lower baseline transmission rates and CDC’s measured protocols. With six months remaining, traders assign 75% probability to “No” based on stable data, absence of novel high-fatality outbreaks, and the agency’s pattern of reserving Level 4 for exceptional, rapidly worsening scenarios unlikely to materialize without major unforeseen shifts in model consensus or confirmed case trajectories.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$71,871
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice ("Avoid All Travel") has been issued as of mid-June 2026, with official CDC pages confirming zero active notices at this tier.** Current epidemiological conditions feature contained transmission for monitored pathogens, including recent Ebola Bundibugyo clusters in the DRC and Uganda that triggered only Level 3 notices in May due to limited case counts and low assessed U.S. importation risk. Domestic surveillance shows COVID-19 infections declining or stable in most states, measles outbreaks remaining regionally managed, and foodborne incidents like listeria tied to specific products without broader escalation. Level 4 criteria require extreme health risks where no effective precautions exist, a threshold not met by ongoing dengue, polio, or viral monitoring. Historical analogs, such as peak COVID waves, contrast with today’s lower baseline transmission rates and CDC’s measured protocols. With six months remaining, traders assign 75% probability to “No” based on stable data, absence of novel high-fatality outbreaks, and the agency’s pattern of reserving Level 4 for exceptional, rapidly worsening scenarios unlikely to materialize without major unforeseen shifts in model consensus or confirmed case trajectories.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$71,871
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿El CDC emite advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?" con 25%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 25¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 25% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?" ha generado $71.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?" es "¿El CDC emite advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?" con 25%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 25% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Los CDC emiten una advertencia de Nivel 4 antes del 31 de diciembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.