USGS data and geological analysis establish that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth, as no fault segment long enough to release the required energy exists, driving the market's 95.3% implied probability for "No" before 2027. The largest recorded event reached 9.5 during the 1960 Valdivia quake along Chile's subduction zone, consistent with the moment magnitude scale's limits tied to rupture length. Historical seismic records show no precedents exceeding 9.5, and current global monitoring by agencies like the USGS confirms stable tectonic conditions without indicators of unprecedented strain accumulation. While model revisions or extreme multi-fault scenarios remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting observational evidence in the near term.