Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5.2% chance of a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning closely with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; a Mw 10.0 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference, far beyond any known tectonic feature like the longest megathrust zones. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Chile event at Mw 9.5, with no Mw 9+ events since 2011 and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below Mw 8 per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, though an unforeseen discovery of a massive, fully locked fault could theoretically shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$596,111 Vol.
$596,111 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$596,111 Vol.
$596,111 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5.2% chance of a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning closely with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; a Mw 10.0 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference, far beyond any known tectonic feature like the longest megathrust zones. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Chile event at Mw 9.5, with no Mw 9+ events since 2011 and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below Mw 8 per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, though an unforeseen discovery of a massive, fully locked fault could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$596,111Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5.2% chance of a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning closely with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; a Mw 10.0 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference, far beyond any known tectonic feature like the longest megathrust zones. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Chile event at Mw 9.5, with no Mw 9+ events since 2011 and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below Mw 8 per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, though an unforeseen discovery of a massive, fully locked fault could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$596,111Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5.2% chance of a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning closely with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; a Mw 10.0 would require a fault exceeding Earth's circumference, far beyond any known tectonic feature like the longest megathrust zones. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Chile event at Mw 9.5, with no Mw 9+ events since 2011 and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below Mw 8 per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, though an unforeseen discovery of a massive, fully locked fault could theoretically shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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