Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4) at 53.5% and one at 41.5% for 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late April per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring—despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions so far. This aligns with historical data showing an average of about one VEI ≥4 eruption annually since 1960, often from volatile-rich silicic magmas producing sustained plumes over 10 km high and at least 0.1 km³ tephra. Recent weekly reports note ongoing effusive and strombolian activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru but no seismic swarms, deformation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. With eight months remaining, GVP updates could shift odds if precursors emerge at restless systems.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 54%
1 42%
2 5.0%
3 1.2%
$1,065,786 Vol.
$1,065,786 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
54%
1
42%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 54%
1 42%
2 5.0%
3 1.2%
$1,065,786 Vol.
$1,065,786 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$476,515 Vol.
54%
1
$260,391 Vol.
42%
2
$32,740 Vol.
5%
3
$24,369 Vol.
1%
4
$21,497 Vol.
1%
5+
$250,273 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4) at 53.5% and one at 41.5% for 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late April per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring—despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions so far. This aligns with historical data showing an average of about one VEI ≥4 eruption annually since 1960, often from volatile-rich silicic magmas producing sustained plumes over 10 km high and at least 0.1 km³ tephra. Recent weekly reports note ongoing effusive and strombolian activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru but no seismic swarms, deformation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. With eight months remaining, GVP updates could shift odds if precursors emerge at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,065,786Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4) at 53.5% and one at 41.5% for 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late April per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring—despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions so far. This aligns with historical data showing an average of about one VEI ≥4 eruption annually since 1960, often from volatile-rich silicic magmas producing sustained plumes over 10 km high and at least 0.1 km³ tephra. Recent weekly reports note ongoing effusive and strombolian activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru but no seismic swarms, deformation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. With eight months remaining, GVP updates could shift odds if precursors emerge at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,065,786Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4) at 53.5% and one at 41.5% for 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late April per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring—despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions so far. This aligns with historical data showing an average of about one VEI ≥4 eruption annually since 1960, often from volatile-rich silicic magmas producing sustained plumes over 10 km high and at least 0.1 km³ tephra. Recent weekly reports note ongoing effusive and strombolian activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru but no seismic swarms, deformation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. With eight months remaining, GVP updates could shift odds if precursors emerge at restless systems.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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